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Karmiotissa v Omonia Nicosia

Karmiotissa

0–3Full time

Omonia Nicosia

1. Division · FRI 9 OCT · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Karmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia OMONIA NICOSIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omonia Nicosia win~~74%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.106

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omonia Nicosia win at 74%.
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Karmiotissa · On: Jael Pawaridihadjo · Off: petros psichas
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Karmiotissa · On: Xhuljo Tabaku · Off: Mateja Bajunovic
64′⚽ GOAL · 60' Karmiotissa 0–1 Omonia Nicosia · Luuk Brouwers
64′SECOND HALF Karmiotissa 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mateo Marić · Off: panagiotis andreou
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Karmiotissa · On: Iakovos savvidis · Off: Alastair Reynolds
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Karmiotissa · On: themistoklis themistokleous · Off: Christos Wheeler
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Karmiotissa
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Karmiotissa 0–2 Omonia Nicosia · Luuk Brouwers
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karmiotissa 0–2 Omonia Nicosia · Muamer Tanković
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Karmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia · Muamer Tanković
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Karmiotissa
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Karmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia
FTFULL TIME Karmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia
FTKarmiotissa 0–3 Omonia Nicosia · Omonia Nicosia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Karmiotissa win10%

Draw16%

Omonia Nicosia win74%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Referee · Antonis Konstantinidis

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Karmiotissa

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Giannakopoulos

8 C. Yebli

6 C. Wheeler

10 D. A. Reynolds

21 P. Psychas

9 Patrick Luan

20 Marios Kokkinoftas

33 Julio Cesar

22 Ruben Garcia

4 S. Dembélé

7 M. Bajunovic

Coach · Alexandros Garpozis

Substitutes

23 · Alexandre Kutateladze

97 · Angelos Argyriou

19 · S. Panagiotou

27 · Manolis Pavlis

34 · Jael Pawaridihadjo

99 · D. Priniotaki

11 · I. Savvidis

44 · J. Smaira

26 · X. Tabaku

70 · themistoklis themistokleous

30 · M. Theocharous

18 · A. Violaris

Omonia Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

74 P. Andreou

29 J. Balkovec

20 L. Brouwers

11 Ewandro

5 S. Coulibaly

99 L. Diony

93 J. Duverne

7 J. Montnor

37 Ľ. Šatka

22 M. Tankovic

1 T. Kaminski

Coach · H. Berg

Substitutes

44 · G. Viktoros

17 · F. Tănase

27 · S. Simič

85 · A. Neophytou

77 · L. Négo

78 · Pantelis Michail

21 · M. Mayambela

14 · M. Marić

9 · A. Kakoullis

40 · Fabiano

8 · D. Akintola

82 · A. Christou

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Karmiotissa

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Giannakopoulos

8 C. Yebli

6 C. Wheeler

10 D. A. Reynolds

21 P. Psychas

9 Patrick Luan

20 Marios Kokkinoftas

33 Julio Cesar

22 Ruben Garcia

4 S. Dembélé

7 M. Bajunovic

Coach · Alexandros Garpozis

Substitutes

23 · Alexandre Kutateladze

97 · Angelos Argyriou

19 · S. Panagiotou

27 · Manolis Pavlis

34 · Jael Pawaridihadjo

99 · D. Priniotaki

11 · I. Savvidis

44 · J. Smaira

26 · X. Tabaku

70 · themistoklis themistokleous

30 · M. Theocharous

18 · A. Violaris

Omonia Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

74 P. Andreou

29 J. Balkovec

20 L. Brouwers

11 Ewandro

5 S. Coulibaly

99 L. Diony

93 J. Duverne

7 J. Montnor

37 Ľ. Šatka

22 M. Tankovic

1 T. Kaminski

Coach · H. Berg

Substitutes

44 · G. Viktoros

17 · F. Tănase

27 · S. Simič

85 · A. Neophytou

77 · L. Négo

78 · Pantelis Michail

21 · M. Mayambela

14 · M. Marić

9 · A. Kakoullis

40 · Fabiano

8 · D. Akintola

82 · A. Christou

Our number · omonia nicosia winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

74% The market78%

Us74%

~~Market~~78%

We make Omonia Nicosia a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · omonia nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karmiotissa win	10%	7%	+3
Draw	16%	15%	+1
Omonia Nicosia win	74%	78%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	63%	63%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	44%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Karmiotissa or draw	26%	22%	+4
Karmiotissa clean sheet	9%	–	–
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.5%

0123450 4.3 9.6 11.5 9.4 6.1 3.41 3.2 7.5 8.6 6.9 4.4 2.32 3.0 3.4 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karmiotissa down, Omonia Nicosia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 1. Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karmiotissa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia Nicosia away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Karmiotissa, 2.52 for Omonia Nicosia. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OMO 3–0 KAR · KAR 2–6 OMO · OMO 2–1 KAR · KAR 3–3 OMO

Form · last six in 1. Division

KARMIOTISSA

WLLDDD1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

OMONIA NICOSIA

WWDWDW3–0 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
2	AEL	4	−1	9
3	Omonia Nicosia	4	+6	8
4	Pafos	4	+2	7
5	Apollon Limassol	4	+2	6
6	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
8	Aris	4	−2	5
9	Apoel Nicosia	4	+3	4
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	4	−1	4
12	Karmiotissa	4	−3	3
13	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	4	−8	0