Karmiotissa v Olympiakos prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarmiotissaDrawOlympiakos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Olympiakos 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Olympiakos just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Karmiotissa 35%, draw 27%, Olympiakos 38%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Karmiotissa v OlympiakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Karmiotissa win35%

Draw27%

Olympiakos win38%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAmmochostos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karmiotissa

Olympiakos

13Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympiakos winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Olympiakos a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karmiotissa v Olympiakos~~1.20 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karmiotissa win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Olympiakos win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Karmiotissa or draw	62%	–	–
Karmiotissa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Olympiakos clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.1 10.6 6.8 2.9 1 10.0 12.8 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karmiotissa down, Olympiakos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karmiotissa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olympiakos away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Karmiotissa, 1.27 for Olympiakos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OLY 4–1 KAR · OLY 1–2 KAR · KAR 0–2 OLY · OLY 0–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

KARMIOTISSA

LDDDLL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

OLYMPIAKOS

DDDLDD0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3