Karmiotissa v Apollon Limassol prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarmiotissaDrawApollon Limassol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Apollon Limassol 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Apollon Limassol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karmiotissa 19%, draw 23%, Apollon Limassol 58%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Karmiotissa v Apollon LimassolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Karmiotissa win19%

Draw23%

Apollon Limassol win58%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueStelios Kyriakides Stadium

RefereeNikolas Liotatis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karmiotissa

Apollon Limassol

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apollon limassol winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market64%

Us58%

~~Market~~64%

We make Apollon Limassol a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karmiotissa v Apollon Limassol~~0.92 – 1.83

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 12~~14 v 4

~~The market · Apollon Limassol win~~64% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Apollon Limassol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karmiotissa win	19%	14%	+5
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Apollon Limassol win	58%	64%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Karmiotissa or draw	42%	36%	+6
Karmiotissa clean sheet	17%	–	–
Apollon Limassol clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.0 11.6 10.5 6.5 3.1 1 6.0 10.7 9.3 5.7 2.7 2 2.9 4.9 4.3 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karmiotissa down, Apollon Limassol across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karmiotissa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Apollon Limassol away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Karmiotissa, 1.83 for Apollon Limassol. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~APO 3–0 KAR · KAR 2–0 APO · APO 0–0 KAR · KAR 0–0 APO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

KARMIOTISSA

LDDDLL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

APOLLON LIMASSOL

DWDDWW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3