Aris v AEK Larnaca prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca AEK LARNACA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AEK Larnaca win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AEK Larnaca win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AEK Larnaca 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Aris v AEK Larnaca
20′We said AEK Larnaca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–22–15
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' AEK Larnaca win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was AEK Larnaca win 15%)
21′We said AEK Larnaca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
21′Aris find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–13
44′We said AEK Larnaca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' AEK Larnaca win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca
45′SECOND HALF Aris 1–0 AEK Larnaca
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' AEK Larnaca
64′We said AEK Larnaca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AEK Larnaca · On: petros ioannou · Off: Jorge Miramón
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AEK Larnaca · On: Nicolas Andereggen · Off: Jan Repas
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' AEK Larnaca
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aris · On: Gustavo Pajé · Off: Veljko Nikolić
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AEK Larnaca · On: Ivan pankov · Off: Sven Kohler
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AEK Larnaca · On: Đorđe Ivanović · Off: Amor Layouni
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aris · On: Werton · Off: Allachi Chahid
85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Aris
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Larnaca · On: Brian Olivan · Off: Enric Saborit
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Aris win 4%)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Aris · On: Sane mamadou · Off: dennis gaustad
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Aris
92′Nicolas Andereggen scores for AEK Larnaca on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 3–94–3
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Aris · On: Bernardo Pereira Folha · Off: Gustavo Pajé
FTFULL TIME Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca
FTAris 1–1 AEK Larnaca · AEK Larnaca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AEK Larnaca just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aris 35%, draw 26%, AEK Larnaca 39%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Aris v AEK LarnacaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aris win35%

Draw26%

AEK Larnaca win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAlphamega Stadium

RefereeDimitris Solomou

Line-ups

Aris

AEK Larnaca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aris

AEK Larnaca

4Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 12 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
6	Aris	5	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aris

Formation not confirmed

20 S. Yago

91 M. Zadro

22 V. Nikolić

17 M. Matysik

24 G. Kalulu

29 D. Gaustad

6 A. Opoku

7 Anderson Correia

8 C. Charalampous

11 R. Effaghe

70 C. El Allachi

Coach · A. Radkov

Substitutes

19 · Sane mamadou

18 · B. Szakos

75 · michalis theodosiou

1 · Vaná Alves

99 · Werton

78 · Denis Ovsyannikov

46 · G. Dimitriou

23 · Bernardo Folha

21 · D. Galyata

30 · Gustavo Pajé

16 · Oriyomi Lebi

5 · D. Lelle

AEK Larnaca

Formation not confirmed

4 Enric Saborit

92 A. Paleari

11 R. Bajić

22 G. Ekpolo

23 S. Köhler

14 A. Layouni

7 Gus Ledes

15 H. Miličević

21 Miramón

28 K. Mrabti

20 J. Repas

Coach · Rubén Sellés

Substitutes

33 · N. Andereggen

44 · Z. Adoni

37 · David Gerasimou

2 · P. Ioannou

9 · Đ. Ivanović

25 · C. Kyriakou

29 · G. Naoum

5 · Brian Oliván

6 · I. Pankov

51 · A. Paraskevas

19 · A. Trică

3 · M. van der Hoorn

Our number · aek larnaca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make AEK Larnaca a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aris v AEK Larnaca~~1.25 – 1.36

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~6 v 2

~~The market · AEK Larnaca win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AEK Larnaca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aris win	35%	35%	0
Draw	26%	28%	−2
AEK Larnaca win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	54%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Aris or draw	61%	63%	−2
Aris clean sheet	26%	–	–
AEK Larnaca clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 9.9 6.7 3.1 1 9.2 12.4 8.2 3.8 2 5.8 7.6 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aris down, AEK Larnaca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,244 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aris at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). AEK Larnaca away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Aris, 1.36 for AEK Larnaca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARI 3–4 AEK · AEK 2–0 ARI · ARI 1–0 AEK · AEK 3–2 ARI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

ARIS

DLWDW2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

AEK LARNACA

WWLWW3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
2	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
3	AEL	5	0	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
5	Pafos	5	+4	10
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3