Apollon Limassol v Pafos prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Apollon LimassolDrawPafos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pafos 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pafos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Apollon Limassol 33%, draw 28%, Pafos 39%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Apollon Limassol v PafosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Apollon Limassol win33%

Draw28%

Pafos win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAlphamega Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Apollon Limassol

Pafos

14Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pafos winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Pafos a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Apollon Limassol v Pafos~~1.16 – 1.30

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Apollon Limassol win	33%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Pafos win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Apollon Limassol or draw	61%	–	–
Apollon Limassol clean sheet	28%	–	–
Pafos clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 10.9 7.2 3.2 1 9.8 12.8 8.1 3.6 2 5.8 7.3 4.7 2.1 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Apollon Limassol down, Pafos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Apollon Limassol at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pafos away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Apollon Limassol, 1.30 for Pafos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~APO 0–2 PAF · APO 2–1 PAF · PAF 1–1 APO · APO 2–1 PAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

APOLLON LIMASSOL

DWDDWW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–2

PAFOS

WDWLWD3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3