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Apollon Limassol v Nea Salamis

Apollon Limassol

4–2Full time

Nea Salamis

1. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Alphamega Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Apollon Limassol 4–2 Nea Salamis APOLLON LIMASSOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Apollon Limassol win~~67%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.167

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.199

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Apollon Limassol win at 67%.
2′Much as we predicted: Apollon Limassol was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–14
2′KICK-OFF Apollon Limassol v Nea Salamis
7′We published Apollon Limassol at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Apollon Limassol 1–0 Nea Salamis
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
8′Apollon Limassol score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
16′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Panagiotis Artymatas · Nea Salamis
21′We published Apollon Limassol at 67%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Apollon Limassol 2–0 Nea Salamis
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Georgios Christodoulou · Nea Salamis
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Apollon Limassol 2–1 Nea Salamis
24′Brandon Thomas scores for Apollon Limassol on 22′. 2–1 · 85–11–4
26′A goal for Nea Salamis on 24′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–11–4
26′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Nea Salamis · On: Christos Giousis · Off: Jordi Quintillà
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Apollon Limassol 2–2 Nea Salamis
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 59% now
30′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 59–26–15
33′30′: Samuel Grandsir on the scoresheet for Nea Salamis, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 57–27–15
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
38′We said Apollon Limassol at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 2–2 · 55–29–15
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Samuel Grandsir · Nea Salamis
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Apollon Limassol
41′We said Apollon Limassol at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 2–2 · 54–31–15
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Nea Salamis
45′SECOND HALF Apollon Limassol 3–2 Nea Salamis
47′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 85–12–3
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Apollon Limassol 3–2 Nea Salamis
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
48′Apollon Limassol ahead on 45′ through Giorgos Malekkidis. 3–2. 3–2 · 85–12–3
48′HALF-TIME Apollon Limassol 3–2 Nea Salamis
51′We said Apollon Limassol at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 3–3 · 49–36–15
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Apollon Limassol 3–3 Nea Salamis
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 49% now
52′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 48–37–15
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Apollon Limassol
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′A goal for Nea Salamis on 52′. 3–2 · 86–12–2
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Nea Salamis
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Apollon Limassol · On: Joel Asoro · Off: Gaetan Weissbeck
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
74′We published Apollon Limassol at 67%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Apollon Limassol 4–2 Nea Salamis
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Apollon Limassol win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
78′Alen Ožbolt scores for Apollon Limassol on 76′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nea Salamis · On: Braydon Manu · Off: andreas panagiotou
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Apollon Limassol · On: Morgan Brown · Off: Ivan Ljubić
79′We published Apollon Limassol at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Dani Escriche · Apollon Limassol
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Apollon Limassol
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nea Salamis · On: timipere eboh johnson · Off: Georgios Christodoulou
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nea Salamis · On: Darío Poveda · Off: Karol Angielski
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Apollon Limassol · On: Connor Goldson · Off: konomis leonidas
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Apollon Limassol · On: Ike Ugbo · Off: Alen Ožbolt
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Apollon Limassol · On: Konstantinos Balogiannis · Off: Giorgos Malekkidis
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Apollon Limassol
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nea Salamis
98′Full time, 4–2. We called Apollon Limassol at 67% — that one lands. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Apollon Limassol 4–2 Nea Salamis
FTApollon Limassol 4–2 Nea Salamis · Apollon Limassol win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Apollon Limassol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Apollon Limassol 67%, draw 19%, Nea Salamis 14%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Apollon Limassol v Nea SalamisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Apollon Limassol win67%

Draw19%

Nea Salamis win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAlphamega Stadium

RefereeAntonis Konstantinidis

Line-ups

Apollon Limassol

Nea Salamis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Apollon Limassol

Nea Salamis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Apollon Limassol

Formation not confirmed

12 Gustavo Assunção

22 P. Kühn

27 G. Weissbeck

23 Brandon Thomas

9 A. Ožbolt

14 G. Malekkides

77 I. Ljubic

44 J. Kvída

37 L. Konomis

76 Bruno Gaspar

30 Dani Escriche

Coach · H. Losada

Substitutes

4 · E. Aiwu

29 · J. Asoro

38 · K. Balogiannis

5 · M. Brown

6 · C. Goldson

26 · A. Shikkis

31 · K. Stylianou

99 · I. Ugbo

40 · Mubarak Uthman

19 · Nearchos zinonos

Nea Salamis

Formation not confirmed

1 Alberto Varó

17 Aldair

19 K. Angielski

4 P. Artymatas

6 Georgios Christodoulou

71 G. Gerolemou

55 Sergio González

7 S. Grandsir

29 F. Hanin

30 A. Panagiotou Filiotis

88 Jordi Quintillà

Coach · Ángel López

Substitutes

12 · A. Dimitriou

34 · C. Evangelou

10 · C. Giousis

14 · T. Johnson Eboh

63 · D. Kovács

24 · V. Lampropoulos

37 · B. Manu

5 · A. Michail

9 · Darío Poveda

16 · Denys Vakulyk

8 · José Artiles

25 · K. Ilia

Our number · apollon limassol winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market64%

Us67%

~~Market~~64%

We make Apollon Limassol a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Apollon Limassol v Nea Salamis~~2.26 – 0.90

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D3 L0 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~5 v 11

~~The market · Apollon Limassol win~~64% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Apollon Limassol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Apollon Limassol win	67%	64%	+3
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Nea Salamis win	14%	14%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%	+6
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	33%	+6
Apollon Limassol or draw	86%	86%	0
Apollon Limassol clean sheet	41%	–	–
Nea Salamis clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 4.1 1 9.7 8.8 4.0 2 10.5 9.2 4.2 3 7.8 6.8 3.1 4 4.5 3.9 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Apollon Limassol down, Nea Salamis across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,242 1. Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 0 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Apollon Limassol at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nea Salamis away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Apollon Limassol, 0.90 for Nea Salamis. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~APO 1–1 NEA · NEA 1–0 APO · NEA 0–2 APO · APO 2–0 NEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

APOLLON LIMASSOL

DWDDW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

NEA SALAMIS

DLLWL3–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
2	AEL	5	0	12
3	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
4	Pafos	5	+4	10
5	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0