Apoel Nicosia v Omonia 29is Maiou prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Apoel NicosiaDrawOmonia 29is Maiou

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Apoel Nicosia 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Apoel Nicosia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Apoel Nicosia 71%, draw 17%, Omonia 29is Maiou 12%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Apoel Nicosia v Omonia 29is MaiouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Apoel Nicosia win71%

Draw17%

Omonia 29is Maiou win12%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGSP Stadium

RefereeAndreas Tehrany

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Apoel Nicosia

Omonia 29is Maiou

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apoel nicosia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

71% The market73%

Us71%

~~Market~~73%

We make Apoel Nicosia a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Apoel Nicosia v Omonia 29is Maiou~~2.38 – 0.83

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~7 v 8

~~The market · Apoel Nicosia win~~73% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Apoel Nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Apoel Nicosia win	71%	73%	−2
Draw	17%	17%	0
Omonia 29is Maiou win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Apoel Nicosia or draw	88%	90%	−2
Apoel Nicosia clean sheet	44%	–	–
Omonia 29is Maiou clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 4.6 3.5 1 9.7 8.2 3.4 2 11.2 9.0 3.8 3 8.8 7.0 2.9 4 5.4 4.2 5 2.7 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Apoel Nicosia down, Omonia 29is Maiou across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Apoel Nicosia at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia 29is Maiou away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.38 goals for Apoel Nicosia, 0.83 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~APO 6–1 OMO · APO 4–0 OMO · OMO 0–0 APO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

APOEL NICOSIA

LWLDWD1–3 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

OMONIA 29IS MAIOU

WDDLLW3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3