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Apoel Nicosia v Nea Salamis

Apoel Nicosia

2–1Full time

Nea Salamis

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · GSP Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis APOEL NICOSIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Apoel Nicosia win~~70%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.140

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Apoel Nicosia win at 70%.
1′KICK-OFF Apoel Nicosia v Nea Salamis
2′Much as we predicted: Apoel Nicosia was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
4′Much as we predicted: Apoel Nicosia was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis
23′A goal for Apoel Nicosia on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 66% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
25′A goal for Apoel Nicosia on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
29′We published Apoel Nicosia at 70%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–3
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
45′SECOND HALF Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Nea Salamis
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nea Salamis · On: Brahim Konate · Off: Jordi Quintillà
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Apoel Nicosia win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Nea Salamis · Fabricio Pedrozo
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Nea Salamis
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stavros Georgiou · Off: Filip Đuričić
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Nea Salamis
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nea Salamis · On: Darío Poveda · Off: Panagiotis Louka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nea Salamis · On: andreas panagiotou · Off: elia konstantinos
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Antonín Barák · Apoel Nicosia
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alberto Varo · Nea Salamis
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Apoel Nicosia · On: Marquinhos · Off: Joan Sastre
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nea Salamis · On: Vasilis Lampropoulos · Off: Giannis Gerolemou
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nea Salamis · On: Vasilis Lampropoulos · Off: Giannis Gerolemou
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Nea Salamis
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Apoel Nicosia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nea Salamis · On: Braydon Manu · Off: Samuel Grandsir
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis · Aldair Balde
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis · Aldair Balde
92′⚽ GOAL · 91' Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis
95′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Marquinhos · Apoel Nicosia
95′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Apoel Nicosia · On: Facundo Pérez · Off: Antonín Barák
95′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stylianos Vrontis · Off: Fabricio Pedrozo
FTFULL TIME Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis
FTApoel Nicosia 2–1 Nea Salamis · Apoel Nicosia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Apoel Nicosia win70%

Draw17%

Nea Salamis win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · GSP Stadium

Referee · Marios Christoforou

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Apoel Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

4 G. Angelopoulos

27 V. Belec

3 K. Stafylidis

25 Joan Sastre

15 F. Pedrozo

18 D. Limnios

31 F. Đuričić

8 Dálcio

16 Álvaro Carrillo

72 A. Barák

9 A. Bakasetas

Coach · N. Papadopoulos

Substitutes

5 · M. Degenek

32 · I. Avramidis

11 · Gabriel Maioli

14 · Ángel García

70 · S. Georgiou

45 · Konstantinos giannakou

7 · D. Mancini

10 · Marquinhos

99 · F. Pérez

21 · K. Poursaitidis

6 · S. Vrontis

1 · O. Zelenika

Nea Salamis

Formation not confirmed

1 Alberto Varó

17 Aldair

4 P. Artymatas

6 Georgios Christodoulou

71 G. Gerolemou

7 S. Grandsir

29 F. Hanin

25 K. Ilia

89 P. Louka

5 A. Michail

88 Jordi Quintillà

Coach · Ángel López

Substitutes

8 · José Artiles

12 · A. Dimitriou

10 · C. Giousis

14 · T. Johnson Eboh

93 · B. Konaté

63 · D. Kovács

24 · V. Lampropoulos

37 · B. Manu

30 · A. Panagiotou Filiotis

9 · Darío Poveda

19 · K. Angielski

34 · C. Evangelou

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Apoel Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

4 G. Angelopoulos

27 V. Belec

3 K. Stafylidis

25 Joan Sastre

15 F. Pedrozo

18 D. Limnios

31 F. Đuričić

8 Dálcio

16 Álvaro Carrillo

72 A. Barák

9 A. Bakasetas

Coach · N. Papadopoulos

Substitutes

5 · M. Degenek

32 · I. Avramidis

11 · Gabriel Maioli

14 · Ángel García

70 · S. Georgiou

45 · Konstantinos giannakou

7 · D. Mancini

10 · Marquinhos

99 · F. Pérez

21 · K. Poursaitidis

6 · S. Vrontis

1 · O. Zelenika

Nea Salamis

Formation not confirmed

1 Alberto Varó

17 Aldair

4 P. Artymatas

6 Georgios Christodoulou

71 G. Gerolemou

7 S. Grandsir

29 F. Hanin

25 K. Ilia

89 P. Louka

5 A. Michail

88 Jordi Quintillà

Coach · Ángel López

Substitutes

8 · José Artiles

12 · A. Dimitriou

10 · C. Giousis

14 · T. Johnson Eboh

93 · B. Konaté

63 · D. Kovács

24 · V. Lampropoulos

37 · B. Manu

30 · A. Panagiotou Filiotis

9 · Darío Poveda

19 · K. Angielski

34 · C. Evangelou

Our number · apoel nicosia winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

70% The market63%

Us70%

~~Market~~63%

We make Apoel Nicosia a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · apoel nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Apoel Nicosia win	70%	63%	+6
Draw	17%	22%	−5
Nea Salamis win	13%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	52%	+14
Both teams to score	55%	48%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	85%	74%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	44%	31%	+13
Apoel Nicosia or draw	87%	85%	+1
Apoel Nicosia clean sheet	39%	–	–
Nea Salamis clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 3.3 1 8.2 7.8 3.7 2 9.7 9.0 4.3 3 7.8 7.2 3.4 4 4.9 4.5 2.1 5 2.6 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Apoel Nicosia down, Nea Salamis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,236 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Apoel Nicosia at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nea Salamis away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Apoel Nicosia, 0.95 for Nea Salamis. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NEA 1–1 APO · APO 3–1 NEA · NEA 0–4 APO · APO 1–0 NEA

Form · last six in 1. Division

APOEL NICOSIA

LLLWLD0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

NEA SALAMIS

WLDLLW1–0 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
2	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
3	AEL	4	−1	9
4	Pafos	4	+2	7
5	Apollon Limassol	4	+2	6
6	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
8	Aris	4	−2	5
9	Apoel Nicosia	4	+3	4
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	4	−1	4
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
13	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	4	−8	0