Anorthosis v Pafos prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Anorthosis 1–3 Pafos PAFOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pafos win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pafos win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pafos 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 21–25–54
2′KICK-OFF Anorthosis v Pafos
9′Little has changed for our model: Pafos 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 21–27–52
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pafos
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Anorthosis 1–0 Pafos
44′⚽ GOAL · 42' Anorthosis 1–0 Pafos
45′SECOND HALF Anorthosis 1–0 Pafos
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Anorthosis 1–1 Pafos · Alessio Da Cruz
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Anorthosis 1–2 Pafos · Alessio Da Cruz
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' Anorthosis 1–2 Pafos · Yoram Zague
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Anorthosis 1–2 Pafos · Leanderson da Silva Genésio
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Anorthosis 1–3 Pafos · Leanderson da Silva Genésio
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Pafos
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Anorthosis 1–3 Pafos
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Anorthosis · On: Rafael Lopes · Off: Tamás Kiss
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Anorthosis · On: simranjit thandi · Off: Stijn Middendorp
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pafos · On: Gonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues · Off: Pêpê
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pafos · On: Felipe Bruno · Off: Vlad Dragomir
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Anorthosis
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Anorthosis · On: Babacar Dione · Off: Andreas Chrysostomou
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pafos · On: Alexandre Brito · Off: Domingos Quina
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pafos · On: Ken Sema · Off: Gabriel Teixeira Aragao
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Anorthosis
92′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Pafos · On: João Correia · Off: Yoram Zague
FTFULL TIME Anorthosis 1–3 Pafos
FTAnorthosis 1–3 Pafos · Pafos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Anorthosis win21%

Draw25%

Pafos win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueAntonis Papadopoulos

RefereeMenelaos Antoniou

Line-ups

Anorthosis

Pafos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Anorthosis

Pafos

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pafos	4	+2	7
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Anorthosis

Formation not confirmed

20 C. Aboagye

44 N. Tošić

22 K. Sergiou

28 J. Karlstrøm

4 K. Artymatas

88 A. Chrysostomou

9 Alessio Da Cruz

45 Gabriel Furtado

5 Kiko

7 T. Kiss

36 Stijn Middendorp

Coach · Nestor El Maestro

Substitutes

57 · E. Charalambous

18 · stephanos charalambous

11 · B. Dione

70 · M. Ilia

47 · A. Karamanolis

58 · K. Lytras

54 · C. Michallas

1 · K. Panayi

51 · S. Panagi

21 · Rafael Lopes

32 · E. Sosa

2 · S. Thandi

Pafos

Formation not confirmed

99 R. Majecki

20 Biel

4 David Luiz

30 V. Dragomir

14 N. Ioannou

18 Lelê

3 S. Mmaee

88 Pêpê Rodrigues

8 Domingos Quina

26 I. Šunjić

2 Yoram\t Zague

Coach · Ricardo Sá Pinto

Substitutes

12 · K. Sema

82 · P. Petrou

17 · afonso patrao

71 · M. Papastylianou

23 · Jonatás Noro

6 · Guga

77 · João Correia

50 · Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito

33 · Anderson Silva

60 · Christos Evzonas

7 · Bruno Felipe

72 · K. Ioannou

Our number · pafos winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Pafos a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pafos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anorthosis win	21%	18%	+3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Pafos win	53%	58%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
Anorthosis or draw	47%	42%	+5
Anorthosis clean sheet	21%	–	–
Pafos clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.8 13.1 10.4 5.6 2.3 1 7.4 11.7 9.1 4.8 2 3.4 5.2 4.1 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anorthosis down, Pafos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 6 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anorthosis at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pafos away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Anorthosis, 1.60 for Pafos. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 14

~~Both scored~~8 of 14

~~Last meetings~~PAF 0–0 ANO · ANO 1–1 PAF · ANO 0–2 PAF · PAF 3–1 ANO

Form · last six in 1. Division

ANORTHOSIS

WLLLWL5–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

PAFOS

DWWDWL2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
2	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
3	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
4	AEL	4	−1	9
5	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
6	Pafos	4	+2	7
7	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
9	Aris	4	−2	5
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
13	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0