Anorthosis v Omonia Aradippou prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Anorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou ANORTHOSIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anorthosis win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.441

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anorthosis win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Anorthosis 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
1′KICK-OFF Anorthosis v Omonia Aradippou
22′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Anorthosis 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
24′Anorthosis score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
43′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Omonia Aradippou
45′SECOND HALF Anorthosis 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
48′HALF-TIME Anorthosis 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Omonia Aradippou
51′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
54′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Anorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Anorthosis
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Anorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou · Gabriel Furtado
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Anorthosis
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 82% now
67′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Anorthosis
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Omonia Aradippou · On: Niko Havelka · Off: Bogdan·Petrovic Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Omonia Aradippou · On: curtis makosso · Off: michalis koumouris
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Omonia Aradippou · On: Unai García · Off: Jeremy van Mullem
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Anorthosis · On: Kostakis Artymatas · Off: Stijn Middendorp Corrected
77′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Anorthosis · On: Tamás Kiss · Off: A. Karamanolis Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Anorthosis · On: Rafael Lopes · Off: Alessio Da Cruz
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Anorthosis win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Omonia Aradippou · On: Helaku Josué Schmidt · Off: Giorgos Pontikos
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Omonia Aradippou · On: Sebastián Lomónaco · Off: gonzalez mathias
93′We said Anorthosis at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Anorthosis · On: Marios Ilia · Off: Babacar Dione
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Unai García · Omonia Aradippou
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Anorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou
94′2–0 at the end. Our 46% on Anorthosis comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Anorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou
FTAnorthosis 2–0 Omonia Aradippou · Anorthosis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anorthosis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anorthosis 46%, draw 28%, Omonia Aradippou 26%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Anorthosis v Omonia AradippouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Anorthosis win46%

Draw28%

Omonia Aradippou win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAntonis Papadopoulos

RefereeChrysovalantis Theouli

Line-ups

Anorthosis

Omonia Aradippou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anorthosis

Omonia Aradippou

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	−2	6
13	Anorthosis	6	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Anorthosis

Formation not confirmed

20 C. Aboagye

28 J. Karlstrøm

44 N. Tošić

22 K. Sergiou

36 Stijn Middendorp

5 Kiko

47 A. Karamanolis

45 Gabriel Furtado

11 B. Dione

9 Alessio Da Cruz

88 A. Chrysostomou

Coach · B. Itzhaki

Substitutes

65 · Sabrawi Ali

4 · K. Artymatas

57 · E. Charalambous

18 · stephanos charalambous

70 · M. Ilia

7 · T. Kiss

1 · K. Panayi

21 · Rafael Lopes

32 · E. Sosa

2 · S. Thandi

50 · D. Juliou

Omonia Aradippou

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Antoniou

34 Danny Agostinho Henriques

81 V. De Marco

8 A. El Bouchataoui

20 Jairo Izquierdo

7 M. Koumouris

41 Mathias Gonzalez

23 Bogdan Petrovic

9 G. Pontikos

14 J. van Mullem

12 Ž. Živković

Coach · G. Okkas

Substitutes

1 · Gabriel Pereira

15 · Unai García

6 · N. Havelka

27 · S. Lomónaco

77 · C. Makosso

25 · Andreas Nikolaou

91 · K. Panteli

88 · G. Papacharalampous

38 · A. Plumain

10 · J. Schmidt

11 · Konstantinos Anthimou

3 · A. Christofi

Our number · anorthosis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Anorthosis a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anorthosis v Omonia Aradippou~~1.32 – 0.91

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~13 v 9

~~The market · Anorthosis win~~45% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Anorthosis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anorthosis win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Omonia Aradippou win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Anorthosis or draw	74%	74%	0
Anorthosis clean sheet	41%	–	–
Omonia Aradippou clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 11.2 9.7 4.5 1 14.0 12.8 5.8 2 9.3 8.3 3.8 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anorthosis down, Omonia Aradippou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1. Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anorthosis at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia Aradippou away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Anorthosis, 0.91 for Omonia Aradippou. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ANO 1–1 OMO · OMO 1–0 ANO · ANO 0–0 OMO · ANO 1–2 OMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

ANORTHOSIS

LLWLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

OMONIA ARADIPPOU

DWDDLL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	−2	6
10	Olympiakos	6	−1	5
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	6	−9	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3