AEL v Omonia 29is Maiou prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

AEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou AEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AEL win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AEL win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: AEL was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
2′Much as we predicted: AEL was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
46′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–36–21
50′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–21
53′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
56′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–43–20
57′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–43–20
60′We published AEL at 54%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
61′60′ and it is 1–0: AEL have scored. 1–0 · 81–16–3
64′59′ and it is 1–0: Joao Tavares on the scoresheet for AEL. 1–0 · 82–15–3
65′59′ and it is 1–0: Joao Tavares on the scoresheet for AEL. 1–0 · 83–15–3
68′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
70′Omonia 29is Maiou ahead on 66′ through Fergus Tierney. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–57–16
73′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–61–14
76′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–66–12
80′We said AEL at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–73–10
83′We published AEL at 54%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
86′Remi Oudin scores for AEL on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
89′We published AEL at 54%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
90′We published AEL at 54%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Omonia 29is Maiou
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' AEL win: 54% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME AEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou
FTAEL 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou · AEL win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

AEL win54%

Draw23%

Omonia 29is Maiou win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueAlphamega Stadium

RefereeChrysovalantis Theouli

Line-ups

AEL

Omonia 29is Maiou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AEL

Omonia 29is Maiou

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	AEL	4	−1	9
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AEL

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Antoniou

1 S. Kapino

6 D. Zdravkovski

20 João Tavares

11 L. Singh

23 Diogo Gomes

30 G. Papageorgiou

10 R. Oudin

22 K. Neofytou

77 F. Mughe

9 S. Jovetić

Coach · Hugo Martins

Substitutes

4 · S. Denswil

99 · G. Chinedu

84 · C. Karamani

2 · A. Karo

70 · kyriacos kyriacou

98 · P. Kyriakou

74 · Samy Merzouk

19 · I. Milosavljević

17 · D. Paroutis

35 · Sérgio Conceição

80 · Jair Tavares

Omonia 29is Maiou

Formation not confirmed

45 Steve Ambri

44 D. Chantakias

20 S. Fiakas

10 Mike Morais

22 K. Nwakali

15 S. Panteli

16 Constantinos Pattichis

19 A. Portales

30 M. Senić

17 panyiotis zachariou

98 F. Uzoho

Coach · N. Tutiç

Substitutes

8 · C. Aristotelous

89 · D. Črnigoj

77 · Luís Santos

1 · Nikos Grammatikakis

4 · A. Kaiafas

43 · Antonis Mavrantonis

46 · M. Sotiriou

11 · Fergus Tierney

5 · S. Tsoukalas

27 · A. Vlachomitros

14 · H. Andreou

26 · A. Marios

Our number · ael winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make AEL a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEL win	54%	58%	−5
Draw	23%	23%	−1
Omonia 29is Maiou win	24%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	+1
AEL or draw	76%	82%	−5
AEL clean sheet	33%	–	–
Omonia 29is Maiou clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 5.8 3.4 1 9.2 10.5 5.9 2.3 2 8.5 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 5.3 5.8 3.3 4 2.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AEL down, Omonia 29is Maiou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEL at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia 29is Maiou away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for AEL, 1.14 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OMO 0–3 AEL · AEL 1–1 OMO · OMO 2–4 AEL

Form · last six in 1. Division

AEL

LWWLWW1–3 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 2–0

OMONIA 29IS MAIOU

LLWDDL0–1 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
2	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
3	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
4	AEL	4	−1	9
5	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
6	Pafos	4	+2	7
7	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
9	Aris	4	−2	5
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
13	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0