AEL v Aris prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AELDrawAris

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aris 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aris are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AEL 26%, draw 24%, Aris 50%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on AEL v ArisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

AEL win26%

Draw24%

Aris win50%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAlphamega Stadium

RefereeIoannis Christodoulou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AEL

Aris

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aris winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Aris a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AEL v Aris~~1.16 – 1.73

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~1 v 6

~~The market · Aris win~~44% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEL win	26%	29%	−3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Aris win	50%	44%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
AEL or draw	50%	56%	−6
AEL clean sheet	18%	–	–
Aris clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 9.5 8.2 4.8 2.1 1 6.4 11.2 9.3 5.4 2.4 2 3.8 6.4 5.4 3.1 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AEL down, Aris across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEL at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aris away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for AEL, 1.73 for Aris. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AEL 2–1 ARI · ARI 0–1 AEL · ARI 4–0 AEL · ARI 4–0 AEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

AEL

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

ARIS

DLWDWD2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3