AEK Larnaca v Omonia Nicosia prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AEK LarnacaDrawOmonia Nicosia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Omonia Nicosia 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AEK Larnaca 34%, draw 26%, Omonia Nicosia 39%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on AEK Larnaca v Omonia NicosiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

AEK Larnaca win34%

Draw26%

Omonia Nicosia win39%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAEK Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AEK Larnaca

Omonia Nicosia

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · omonia nicosia winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Omonia Nicosia a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AEK Larnaca v Omonia Nicosia~~1.26 – 1.37

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~2 v 3

~~The market · Omonia Nicosia win~~47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Omonia Nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEK Larnaca win	34%	26%	+8
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Omonia Nicosia win	39%	47%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
AEK Larnaca or draw	61%	53%	+8
AEK Larnaca clean sheet	26%	–	–
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 9.8 6.8 3.1 1 9.0 12.4 8.3 3.8 2 5.7 7.6 5.2 2.4 3 2.4 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AEK Larnaca down, Omonia Nicosia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1. Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEK Larnaca at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia Nicosia away: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for AEK Larnaca, 1.37 for Omonia Nicosia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OMO 1–1 AEK · AEK 0–2 OMO · OMO 2–1 AEK · AEK 1–1 OMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

AEK LARNACA

WWLWWD3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

OMONIA NICOSIA

DWDWWD0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	−2	6
10	Olympiakos	6	−1	5
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	6	−9	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3