AEK Larnaca v Omonia Aradippou prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou AEK LARNACA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said AEK Larnaca win~~69%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AEK Larnaca win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AEK Larnaca 69% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–20–11
1′KICK-OFF AEK Larnaca v Omonia Aradippou
11′Little has changed for our model: AEK Larnaca 69% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–22–11
12′Little has changed for our model: AEK Larnaca 69% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–23–11
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 91% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 66% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' AEK Larnaca
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 62% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Omonia Aradippou
45′HALF-TIME AEK Larnaca 0–0 Omonia Aradippou
46′SECOND HALF AEK Larnaca 0–0 Omonia Aradippou
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AEK Larnaca · On: Kerim Mrabti · Off: Đorđe Ivanović
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AEK Larnaca · On: Enric Saborit · Off: Mike Van der Hoorn
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
67′We said AEK Larnaca at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 91% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 66% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AEK Larnaca win: 69% at kick-off, 66% now
70′PENALTY MISSED · 69' AEK Larnaca
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Omonia Aradippou · On: evripidou evripidou · Off: Niko Havelka
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Omonia Aradippou · On: curtis makosso · Off: Giorgos Pontikos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AEK Larnaca · On: Jorge Miramón · Off: Kostas Pileas
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Omonia Aradippou · On: Helaku Josué Schmidt · Off: Achraf bouchataoui el
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Omonia Aradippou · On: Ange-Freddy Plumain · Off: Bogdan·Petrovic
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Larnaca · On: Giorgos Naoum · Off: Amor Layouni
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Larnaca · On: Nicolas Andereggen · Off: Jan Repas
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Omonia Aradippou
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
FTFULL TIME AEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou
FTAEK Larnaca 1–0 Omonia Aradippou · AEK Larnaca win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

AEK Larnaca win69%

Draw20%

Omonia Aradippou win11%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueAEK Arena

RefereeTheodoros Sofokleous

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

Omonia Aradippou

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AEK Larnaca

Omonia Aradippou

24Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
8	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

Formation not confirmed

11 R. Bajić

92 A. Paleari

3 M. van der Hoorn

20 J. Repas

17 K. Pileas

15 H. Miličević

7 Gus Ledes

14 A. Layouni

23 S. Köhler

9 Đ. Ivanović

22 G. Ekpolo

Coach · Rubén Sellés

Substitutes

33 · N. Andereggen

44 · Z. Adoni

37 · David Gerasimou

2 · P. Ioannou

25 · C. Kyriakou

21 · Miramón

28 · K. Mrabti

29 · G. Naoum

6 · I. Pankov

51 · A. Paraskevas

4 · Enric Saborit

19 · A. Trică

Omonia Aradippou

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Antoniou

3 A. Christofi

81 V. De Marco

8 A. El Bouchataoui

15 Unai García

6 N. Havelka

7 M. Koumouris

23 Bogdan Petrovic

9 G. Pontikos

14 J. van Mullem

12 Ž. Živković

Coach · G. Okkas

Substitutes

1 · Gabriel Pereira

93 · G. Hadzigianni

37 · A. Loizou

27 · S. Lomónaco

77 · C. Makosso

91 · K. Panteli

88 · G. Papacharalampous

47 · andreas pappoulos

38 · A. Plumain

10 · J. Schmidt

11 · Konstantinos Anthimou

21 · evripidou evripidou

Our number · aek larnaca winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

69% The market69%

Us69%

~~Market~~69%

We make AEK Larnaca a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aek larnaca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEK Larnaca win	69%	69%	0
Draw	20%	20%	+1
Omonia Aradippou win	11%	12%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
AEK Larnaca or draw	89%	88%	0
AEK Larnaca clean sheet	53%	–	–
Omonia Aradippou clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 7.6 4.7 1 14.3 9.2 3.0 2 14.0 8.8 2.9 3 9.3 5.8 4 4.8 2.9 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+AEK Larnaca down, Omonia Aradippou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 1. Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEK Larnaca at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Omonia Aradippou away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for AEK Larnaca, 0.64 for Omonia Aradippou. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OMO 2–1 AEK · AEK 1–0 OMO · OMO 2–0 AEK · AEK 1–0 OMO

Form · last six in 1. Division

AEK LARNACA

DWWWLW2–2 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

OMONIA ARADIPPOU

WWDWDD2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	5	0	12
2	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
3	Pafos	5	+4	10
4	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
5	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0