Zagora v Križevci prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Zagora 1–1 Križevci ZAGORA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zagora win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.904

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zagora win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zagora was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–34
1′KICK-OFF Zagora v Križevci
11′A goal for Križevci on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–21–58
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Zagora 0–1 Križevci
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Križevci win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Zagora win 43%)
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' Križevci
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Zagora win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Križevci win 58%)
23′A goal for Križevci on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–59
23′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' Križevci
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Zagora 0–1 Križevci
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Križevci win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Zagora win 41%)
28′Zagora score on 27′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–28–32
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Zagora 1–1 Križevci
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Zagora win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Križevci win 60%)
44′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 36–34–29
45′HALF-TIME Zagora 1–1 Križevci
46′SECOND HALF Zagora 1–1 Križevci
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Zagora win 36%)
56′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–41–27
62′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–24
70′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
81′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
85′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
92′We said Zagora at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Zagora win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Zagora 1–1 Križevci
FTZagora 1–1 Križevci · Zagora win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zagora are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zagora 44%, draw 23%, Križevci 34%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Zagora v KriževciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zagora win44%

Draw23%

Križevci win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zagora

Križevci

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zagora winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Zagora a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zagora v Križevci~~1.76 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~10 v 11

~~The market · Zagora win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zagora win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zagora win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Križevci win	34%	31%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Zagora or draw	66%	69%	−3
Zagora clean sheet	23%	–	–
Križevci clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 6.0 4.4 2.3 1 6.9 9.8 7.4 3.8 2 5.9 8.5 6.4 3.3 3 3.5 5.0 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zagora down, Križevci across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Zagora at home: 2.20 scored, 2.40 conceded a game (last 5). Križevci away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Zagora, 1.52 for Križevci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

ZAGORA

DWWLDD1–1 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 2–2

KRIŽEVCI

WDWLLD3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5