Varteks Varaždin v Uljanik prediction · Second NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Varteks VaraždinDrawUljanik

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Uljanik 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Uljanik just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Varteks Varaždin 37%, draw 24%, Uljanik 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Varteks Varaždin v UljanikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Varteks Varaždin win37%

Draw24%

Uljanik win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varteks Varaždin

Uljanik

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 23 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Uljanik	10	−3	14
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	−9	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uljanik winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Uljanik a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varteks Varaždin v Uljanik~~1.51 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varteks Varaždin win	37%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Uljanik win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Varteks Varaždin or draw	61%	–	–
Varteks Varaždin clean sheet	22%	–	–
Uljanik clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.0 7.4 5.7 3.0 1 7.2 10.8 8.3 4.3 2 5.3 8.0 6.1 3.2 3 2.7 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varteks Varaždin down, Uljanik across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,048 Second NL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varteks Varaždin at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Uljanik away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Varteks Varaždin, 1.55 for Uljanik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ULJ 3–0 VAR · VAR 1–0 ULJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 19 Sept

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN

LDDLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–3

ULJANIK

LDLWLL0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	+8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	+9	18
4	Jarun	9	+5	15
5	Solin	10	+4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	+3	15
7	Trnje	10	+2	14
8	Uljanik	10	−3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	−1	13
10	Zagora	10	+1	12
11	Križevci	10	−3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	−6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	−7	11
14	Lucko	10	−2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	−9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	−15	5