Varteks Varaždin v Hrvatski Dragovoljac prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Varteks Varaždin 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac VARTEKS VARAŽDIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varteks Varaždin win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varteks Varaždin win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Varteks Varaždin was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Varteks Varaždin v Hrvatski Dragovoljac
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Varteks Varaždin win 34%)
43′Varteks Varaždin score on 42′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–6
43′We published Varteks Varaždin at 42%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–6
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–6
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Varteks Varaždin 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Varteks Varaždin win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Varteks Varaždin win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 19%)
45′We published Varteks Varaždin at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Varteks Varaždin 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
46′SECOND HALF Varteks Varaždin 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
53′42′: Thiago Pato on the scoresheet for Varteks Varaždin, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–5
53′We published Varteks Varaždin at 42%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–5
62′Varteks Varaždin find the net on 61′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′We published Varteks Varaždin at 42%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Varteks Varaždin 2–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Varteks Varaždin win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
67′Varteks Varaždin ahead on 63′ through an own goal by A. Mediero. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
81′We published Varteks Varaždin at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′A goal for Varteks Varaždin on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Varteks Varaždin 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FTFULL TIME Varteks Varaždin 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FTVarteks Varaždin 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac · Varteks Varaždin win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varteks Varaždin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Varteks Varaždin 42%, draw 27%, Hrvatski Dragovoljac 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Varteks Varaždin v Hrvatski DragovoljacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Varteks Varaždin win42%

Draw27%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varteks Varaždin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 9 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
16	Varteks Varaždin	8	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varteks varaždin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Varteks Varaždin a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varteks Varaždin v Hrvatski Dragovoljac~~1.34 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~16 v 12

~~The market · Varteks Varaždin win~~36% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Varteks Varaždin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varteks Varaždin win	42%	36%	+6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Hrvatski Dragovoljac win	31%	36%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Varteks Varaždin or draw	69%	64%	+5
Varteks Varaždin clean sheet	34%	–	–
Hrvatski Dragovoljac clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.1 9.7 5.3 1 11.8 12.5 6.8 2.6 2 7.8 8.3 4.6 3 3.6 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varteks Varaždin down, Hrvatski Dragovoljac across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Second NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varteks Varaždin at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hrvatski Dragovoljac away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Varteks Varaždin, 1.09 for Hrvatski Dragovoljac. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAR 0–0 HRV · HRV 1–3 VAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN

LWLDDL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

HRVATSKI DRAGOVOLJAC

DWWLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dugo Selo	8	+7	16
2	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
3	Bjelovar	8	+5	14
4	Uljanik	9	−1	14
5	Jarun	7	+5	13
6	Trnje	8	+4	13
7	Solin	8	+2	12
8	Inter Zapresic	8	−1	11
9	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
10	Zagora	8	+1	10
11	Križevci	8	−3	10
12	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
13	Slavonija Požega	8	0	9
14	Lucko	8	−2	8
15	Koprivnica	8	−9	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	8	−9	5