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Model 1.2

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Uskok Klis v Solin

Uskok Klis
1–0Full time
Solin

Second NL · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Uskok Klis 1–0 Solin USKOK KLIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uskok Klis win53%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.330
The market’s Brier score0.399

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uskok Klis win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Uskok Klis 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Uskok Klis v Solin
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Uskok Klis win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  5. 43′A goal for Uskok Klis on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  6. 43′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  7. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Uskok Klis 1–0 Solin
  8. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Uskok Klis win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Uskok Klis 1–0 Solin
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Uskok Klis 1–0 Solin
  11. 51′A goal for Uskok Klis on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  12. 51′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  13. 59′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  14. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Uskok Klis win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
  15. 73′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  16. 80′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  17. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Uskok Klis win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  18. 87′We said Uskok Klis at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Uskok Klis 1–0 Solin
  20. FTUskok Klis 1–0 Solin · Uskok Klis win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uskok Klis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uskok Klis 53%, draw 22%, Solin 25%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Uskok Klis v SolinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uskok Klis win53%
Draw22%
Solin win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uskok Klis

Solin

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 11 Oct · Second NL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Uskok Klis7+1115
7Solin8+212

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uskok klis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
53% The market48%
Us53%
Market48%

We make Uskok Klis a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Uskok Klis v Solin1.92 – 1.23
Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 29 AugW4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 15 v 122 v 7
The market · Uskok Klis win48% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 13:23
Our probability · Uskok Klis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Uskok Klis win53%48%+5
Draw22%27%−5
Solin win25%25%0
Over 2.5 goals60%55%+5
Both teams to score59%58%+1
Over 1.5 goals82%76%+6
Over 3.5 goals38%35%+3
Uskok Klis or draw75%75%0
Uskok Klis clean sheet30%––
Solin clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.6 5.5 3.4 1 8.4 10.0 6.1 2.6 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 5.0 6.0 3.6 4 2.5 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Uskok Klis down, Solin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSOL 3–1 USK · USK 0–0 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 29 Aug

USKOK KLIS

LWWLWW0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0

SOLIN

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dugo Selo8+716
2Uskok Klis7+1115
3Bjelovar8+514
4Uljanik9−114
5Jarun7+513
6Trnje8+413
7Solin8+212
8Inter Zapresic8−111
9Grobničan Čavle9−611
10Zagora8+110
11Križevci8−310
12Hrvatski Dragovoljac8−410
13Slavonija Požega809
14Lucko8−28
15Koprivnica8−95
16Varteks Varaždin8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.