Uljanik v Uskok Klis prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Uljanik 1–3 Uskok Klis USKOK KLIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uskok Klis win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.564

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.600

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uskok Klis win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Uskok Klis 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Uljanik v Uskok Klis
31′Uskok Klis find the net on 30′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
31′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Uljanik 0–1 Uskok Klis
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 14–21–65
45′HALF-TIME Uljanik 0–1 Uskok Klis
46′Uskok Klis ahead on 31′ through M. Ticinovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
46′SECOND HALF Uljanik 0–1 Uskok Klis
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
53′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
59′A goal for Uskok Klis on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Uljanik 0–2 Uskok Klis
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
60′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
65′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
68′Uljanik score on 67′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–76
68′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Uljanik 1–2 Uskok Klis
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
73′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
74′Uskok Klis find the net on 74′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Uljanik 1–3 Uskok Klis
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–97
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Uskok Klis win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
85′We said Uskok Klis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Uljanik 1–3 Uskok Klis
FTUljanik 1–3 Uskok Klis · Uskok Klis win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Uskok Klis just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Uljanik 38%, draw 22%, Uskok Klis 39%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Uljanik v Uskok KlisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Uljanik win38%

Draw22%

Uskok Klis win39%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uljanik

Uskok Klis

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uskok klis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Uskok Klis a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uljanik v Uskok Klis~~1.66 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~6 v 1

~~The market · Uskok Klis win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Uskok Klis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uljanik win	38%	37%	+1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Uskok Klis win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	65%	60%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	43%	35%	+8
Uljanik or draw	61%	63%	−2
Uljanik clean sheet	19%	–	–
Uskok Klis clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 6.2 5.1 2.9 1 6.1 9.7 8.1 4.5 2 4.9 8.0 6.6 3.7 3 2.7 4.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uljanik down, Uskok Klis across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,040 Second NL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uljanik at home: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Uskok Klis away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Uljanik, 1.69 for Uskok Klis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ULJ 4–3 USK · USK 1–2 ULJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept

ULJANIK

DLDLWL2–2 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–2

USKOK KLIS

WWLWWW4–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	8	+12	18
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	9	−1	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5