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Uljanik v Križevci

Uljanik

3–1Full time

Križevci

Second NL · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Uljanik 3–1 Križevci ULJANIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uljanik win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.434

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Uljanik win43%

Draw24%

Križevci win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uljanik winPublished 9 Oct 14:02

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Uljanik a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · uljanik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uljanik win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Križevci win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	34%	+2
Uljanik or draw	67%	72%	−5
Uljanik clean sheet	25%	–	–
Križevci clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 6.9 4.8 2.2 1 8.1 10.8 7.5 3.5 2 6.5 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uljanik down, Križevci across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,024 Second NL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uljanik at home: 2.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Križevci away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Uljanik, 1.40 for Križevci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KRI 2–0 ULJ · ULJ 3–0 KRI · ULJ 4–0 KRI · KRI 2–0 ULJ

Form · last six in Second NL

ULJANIK

WWDLDL3–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2

KRIŽEVCI

LLWDWL0–3 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bjelovar	7	+7	14
2	Trnje	7	+5	13
3	Dugo Selo	7	+5	13
4	Uskok Klis	6	+7	12
5	Solin	7	+2	11
6	Uljanik	7	−1	11
7	Jarun	6	+4	10
8	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	7	0	10
9	Križevci	7	−1	10
10	Zagora	7	+1	9
11	Slavonija Požega	7	0	8
12	Inter Zapresic	7	−2	8
13	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7
14	Lucko	7	−3	5
15	Koprivnica	7	−8	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	7	−8	5