Trnje v Dugo Selo prediction · Second NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TrnjeDrawDugo Selo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trnje 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trnje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trnje 44%, draw 26%, Dugo Selo 30%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Trnje v Dugo SeloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

Trnje win44%

Draw26%

Dugo Selo win30%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trnje

Dugo Selo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dugo Selo	10	+8	19
7	Trnje	10	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trnje winFirst published 24 Oct 03:45 · updated 25 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Trnje a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trnje v Dugo Selo~~1.41 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trnje win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trnje win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Dugo Selo win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Trnje or draw	70%	–	–
Trnje clean sheet	33%	–	–
Dugo Selo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 9.0 5.0 1 11.3 12.3 6.9 2.6 2 7.9 8.6 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trnje down, Dugo Selo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,048 Second NL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trnje at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dugo Selo away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Trnje, 1.12 for Dugo Selo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TRN 0–1 DUG · DUG 3–0 TRN · TRN 1–0 DUG · DUG 2–2 TRN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 18 Sept

TRNJE

LLWLDL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

DUGO SELO

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	+8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	+9	18
4	Jarun	9	+5	15
5	Solin	10	+4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	+3	15
7	Trnje	10	+2	14
8	Uljanik	10	−3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	−1	13
10	Zagora	10	+1	12
11	Križevci	10	−3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	−6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	−7	11
14	Lucko	10	−2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	−9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	−15	5