Solin v Varteks Varaždin prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Solin 3–0 Varteks Varaždin SOLIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Solin win~~58%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.300

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Solin win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Solin was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
1′KICK-OFF Solin v Varteks Varaždin
4′Solin score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
4′We published Solin at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Solin 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Solin win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–5
45′HALF-TIME Solin 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
46′SECOND HALF Solin 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
53′Solin find the net on 53′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
53′We published Solin at 58%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Solin 2–0 Varteks Varaždin
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Solin win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Solin win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
80′We published Solin at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′A goal for Solin on 86′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Solin 3–0 Varteks Varaždin
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Solin 3–0 Varteks Varaždin
FTSolin 3–0 Varteks Varaždin · Solin win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Solin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solin 58%, draw 22%, Varteks Varaždin 20%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Solin v Varteks VaraždinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Solin win58%

Draw22%

Varteks Varaždin win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Pokraj Jadra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solin

Varteks Varaždin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Solin	9	+1	12
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · solin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market55%

Us58%

~~Market~~55%

We make Solin a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Solin v Varteks Varaždin~~1.86 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~8 v 15

~~The market · Solin win~~55% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Solin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Solin win	58%	55%	+3
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Varteks Varaždin win	20%	21%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Solin or draw	80%	79%	+1
Solin clean sheet	39%	–	–
Varteks Varaždin clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 6.0 2.8 1 11.2 10.4 5.1 2 10.2 9.6 4.6 3 6.3 5.9 2.9 4 3.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Solin down, Varteks Varaždin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Solin at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Varteks Varaždin away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Solin, 0.96 for Varteks Varaždin. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOL 2–3 VAR · VAR 1–2 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

SOLIN

DLWWDL1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN

WLDDLW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5