Solin v Grobničan Čavle prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Solin 1–1 Grobničan Čavle SOLIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Solin win~~67%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.163

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.099

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Solin win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Solin was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–16
3′Much as we predicted: Solin was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–16
26′A goal for Solin on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
33′A goal for Solin on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
41′40′ and it is 1–1: Grobničan Čavle have scored. 1–1 · 56–27–17
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 56% now
45′40′ and it is 1–1: Grobničan Čavle have scored. 1–1 · 54–29–17
45′We said Solin at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–29–17
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 56% now
45′HALF-TIME Solin 1–1 Grobničan Čavle
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
46′SECOND HALF Solin 1–1 Grobničan Čavle
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Solin win: 67% at kick-off, 54% now
FTFULL TIME Solin 1–1 Grobničan Čavle
FTSolin 1–1 Grobničan Čavle · Solin win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Solin win67%

Draw17%

Grobničan Čavle win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueStadion Pokraj Jadra

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Solin

Grobničan Čavle

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Solin	7	+2	11
14	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · solin winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

67% The market66%

Us67%

~~Market~~66%

We make Solin a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · solin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Solin win	67%	66%	0
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Grobničan Čavle win	16%	13%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	72%	61%	+12
Both teams to score	64%	54%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	52%	41%	+11
Solin or draw	84%	87%	−3
Solin clean sheet	31%	–	–
Grobničan Čavle clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.4 3.0 1 6.1 7.0 4.2 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 6.3 7.4 4.4 4 4.2 4.8 2.9 5 2.3 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Solin down, Grobničan Čavle across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 Second NL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Solin at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Grobničan Čavle away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.61 goals for Solin, 1.20 for Grobničan Čavle. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GRO 1–2 SOL · SOL 2–0 GRO · GRO 1–5 SOL · SOL 2–1 GRO

Form · last six in Second NL

SOLIN

LWDLWW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–0

GROBNIČAN ČAVLE

WDLWLL1–0 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dugo Selo	8	+7	16
2	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
3	Bjelovar	8	+5	14
4	Uljanik	8	+1	14
5	Jarun	7	+5	13
6	Trnje	8	+4	13
7	Solin	7	+2	11
8	Zagora	8	+1	10
9	Križevci	8	−3	10
10	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
11	Slavonija Požega	8	0	9
12	Inter Zapresic	7	−2	8
13	Lucko	8	−2	8
14	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7
15	Koprivnica	7	−8	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	8	−9	5