Slavonija Požega v Trnje prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Slavonija Požega 3–1 Trnje SLAVONIJA POŽEGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavonija Požega win~~50%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavonija Požega win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slavonija Požega 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
1′KICK-OFF Slavonija Požega v Trnje
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′A goal for Slavonija Požega on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′We said Slavonija Požega at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Slavonija Požega 1–0 Trnje
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Slavonija Požega 1–0 Trnje
46′SECOND HALF Slavonija Požega 1–0 Trnje
64′We said Slavonija Požega at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
65′Trnje score on 64′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–50–20
65′We said Slavonija Požega at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–50–20
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Slavonija Požega 1–1 Trnje
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Slavonija Požega win 80%)
66′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 30–51–20
67′We said Slavonija Požega at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
73′We said Slavonija Požega at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
78′We said Slavonija Požega at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
82′We said Slavonija Požega at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
82′Slavonija Požega find the net on 82′. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Slavonija Požega 2–1 Trnje
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, 91% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Slavonija Požega win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 77%)
83′We said Slavonija Požega at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
88′We said Slavonija Požega at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
94′A goal for Slavonija Požega on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Slavonija Požega 3–1 Trnje
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Slavonija Požega win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Slavonija Požega 3–1 Trnje
FTSlavonija Požega 3–1 Trnje · Slavonija Požega win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavonija Požega are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavonija Požega 50%, draw 22%, Trnje 28%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Slavonija Požega v TrnjeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slavonija Požega win50%

Draw22%

Trnje win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavonija Požega

Trnje

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavonija požega winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market32%

Us50%

~~Market~~32%

We make Slavonija Požega a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavonija Požega v Trnje~~1.86 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~7 v 5

~~The market · Slavonija Požega win~~32% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slavonija Požega win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavonija Požega win	50%	32%	+18
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Trnje win	28%	41%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	61%	54%	+7
Both teams to score	61%	58%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	39%	34%	+5
Slavonija Požega or draw	72%	59%	+13
Slavonija Požega clean sheet	27%	–	–
Trnje clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 5.8 3.7 1 8.0 9.9 6.5 2.9 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.7 3 4.4 5.6 3.7 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavonija Požega down, Trnje across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Slavonija Požega at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Trnje away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Slavonija Požega, 1.32 for Trnje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

SLAVONIJA POŽEGA

LWDWDW0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

TRNJE

DLLWLD3–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5