Slavonija Požega v Dugo Selo prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Slavonija Požega 1–0 Dugo Selo SLAVONIJA POŽEGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavonija Požega win~~48%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavonija Požega win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Slavonija Požega 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
2′KICK-OFF Slavonija Požega v Dugo Selo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Slavonija Požega 0–0 Dugo Selo
46′SECOND HALF Slavonija Požega 0–0 Dugo Selo
50′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–40–24
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Slavonija Požega win 35%)
53′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–23
55′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–44–23
64′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
71′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
78′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–70–12
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
81′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
85′We said Slavonija Požega at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
89′PENALTY MISSED · 88' Dugo Selo
91′Slavonija Požega score on 90′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
91′We said Slavonija Požega at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Slavonija Požega 1–0 Dugo Selo
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Slavonija Požega win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Slavonija Požega win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Slavonija Požega 1–0 Dugo Selo
FTSlavonija Požega 1–0 Dugo Selo · Slavonija Požega win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavonija Požega are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavonija Požega 48%, draw 24%, Dugo Selo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Slavonija Požega v Dugo SeloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Slavonija Požega win48%

Draw24%

Dugo Selo win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavonija Požega

Dugo Selo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavonija požega winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market29%

Us48%

~~Market~~29%

We make Slavonija Požega a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavonija Požega v Dugo Selo~~1.70 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 16~~13 v 1

~~The market · Slavonija Požega win~~29% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slavonija Požega win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavonija Požega win	48%	29%	+19
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Dugo Selo win	28%	44%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Slavonija Požega or draw	72%	56%	+16
Slavonija Požega clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dugo Selo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 6.8 4.2 1 9.2 10.9 6.7 2.8 2 7.6 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavonija Požega down, Dugo Selo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Second NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Slavonija Požega at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dugo Selo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Slavonija Požega, 1.24 for Dugo Selo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 Sept

SLAVONIJA POŽEGA

LLWDWD0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 2–2

DUGO SELO

LLWWWW0–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dugo Selo	8	+7	16
2	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
3	Bjelovar	8	+5	14
4	Uljanik	9	−1	14
5	Jarun	7	+5	13
6	Trnje	8	+4	13
7	Solin	8	+2	12
8	Inter Zapresic	8	−1	11
9	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
10	Zagora	8	+1	10
11	Križevci	8	−3	10
12	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
13	Slavonija Požega	8	0	9
14	Lucko	8	−2	8
15	Koprivnica	8	−9	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	8	−9	5