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Lucko v Trnje

Lucko

2–1Full time

Trnje

Second NL · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Lucko 2–1 Trnje LUCKO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lucko win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.562

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lucko win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lucko 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Lucko v Trnje
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Lucko 1–0 Trnje
21′Lucko find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Lucko win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Lucko 2–0 Trnje
43′A goal for Lucko on 24′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Lucko win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Lucko 2–0 Trnje
47′SECOND HALF Lucko 2–0 Trnje
FTFULL TIME Lucko 2–1 Trnje
FTLucko 2–1 Trnje · Lucko win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lucko win39%

Draw26%

Trnje win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucko winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Lucko a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lucko win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Trnje win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Lucko or draw	65%	60%	+5
Lucko clean sheet	29%	–	–
Trnje clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.6 9.3 5.9 2.5 1 10.0 12.1 7.7 3.3 2 6.7 8.2 5.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lucko down, Trnje across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,026 Second NL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lucko at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Trnje away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Lucko, 1.27 for Trnje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LUC 2–1 TRN · TRN 0–1 LUC

Form · last six in Second NL

LUCKO

WLDLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

TRNJE

WWDLLW2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
2	Bjelovar	7	+7	14
3	Uljanik	8	+1	14
4	Trnje	7	+5	13
5	Dugo Selo	7	+5	13
6	Solin	7	+2	11
7	Jarun	6	+4	10
8	Križevci	8	−3	10
9	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
10	Zagora	7	+1	9
11	Slavonija Požega	7	0	8
12	Inter Zapresic	7	−2	8
13	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7
14	Lucko	7	−3	5
15	Koprivnica	7	−8	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	7	−8	5