Lucko v Grobničan Čavle prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Lucko 1–1 Grobničan Čavle LUCKO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lucko win~~49%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lucko win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lucko was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
1′KICK-OFF Lucko v Grobničan Čavle
34′Grobničan Čavle find the net on 34′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–57
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Lucko 0–1 Grobničan Čavle
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Lucko win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Grobničan Čavle win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Lucko win 43%)
35′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–57
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 18–25–57
45′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
45′HALF-TIME Lucko 0–1 Grobničan Čavle
46′SECOND HALF Lucko 0–1 Grobničan Čavle
59′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Lucko win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
71′A goal for Lucko on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–58–17
71′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–58–17
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Lucko 1–1 Grobničan Čavle
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Lucko win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Grobničan Čavle win 74%)
72′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Lucko win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Lucko win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Lucko at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Lucko 1–1 Grobničan Čavle
FTLucko 1–1 Grobničan Čavle · Lucko win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lucko are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lucko 49%, draw 23%, Grobničan Čavle 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Lucko v Grobničan ČavleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lucko win49%

Draw23%

Grobničan Čavle win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lucko

Grobničan Čavle

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 16 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
14	Lucko	9	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lucko winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make Lucko a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lucko v Grobničan Čavle~~1.81 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~14 v 12

~~The market · Lucko win~~46% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lucko win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lucko win	49%	46%	+3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Grobničan Čavle win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	55%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	37%	34%	+3
Lucko or draw	72%	72%	0
Lucko clean sheet	28%	–	–
Grobničan Čavle clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 6.1 3.9 1 8.4 10.3 6.7 2.9 2 7.3 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.4 5.5 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lucko down, Grobničan Čavle across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lucko at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Grobničan Čavle away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Lucko, 1.29 for Grobničan Čavle. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GRO 2–2 LUC · LUC 2–0 GRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 11 Sept

LUCKO

DLLLWD2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

GROBNIČAN ČAVLE

LWLLDW0–4 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5