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Križevci v Lucko

Križevci
1–1Full time
Lucko

Second NL · SAT 17 OCT · Gradski stadion Krizevci

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Križevci 1–1 Lucko KRIŽEVCI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Križevci win55%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.923
The market’s Brier score0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Križevci win at 55%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Križevci was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–21
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Križevci v Lucko
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 42′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–37–19
  6. 45′We published Križevci at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  7. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Križevci 1–0 Lucko
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Križevci 1–0 Lucko
  10. 47′A goal for Križevci on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  11. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Križevci 1–0 Lucko
  12. 47′PENALTY MISSED · 45+2' Križevci
  13. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
  14. 51′A goal for Križevci on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  15. 51′We published Križevci at 55%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  16. 63′We published Križevci at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  17. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  18. 64′Lucko score on 64′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–54–15
  19. 64′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–54–15
  20. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Križevci 1–1 Lucko
  21. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 31% now
  22. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Križevci win 31%)
  23. 65′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 30–55–15
  24. 67′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  26. 72′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–12
  27. 77′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  29. 81′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–7
  30. 85′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  31. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Križevci win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  32. 91′We said Križevci at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
  33. FTFULL TIME Križevci 1–1 Lucko
  34. FTKriževci 1–1 Lucko · Križevci win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Križevci are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Križevci 55%, draw 24%, Lucko 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Križevci v LuckoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Križevci win55%
Draw24%
Lucko win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueGradski stadion Krizevci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Križevci

Lucko

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 10 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Križevci8−310
14Lucko8−28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · križevci winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market52%
Us55%
Market52%

We make Križevci a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Križevci v Lucko1.68 – 0.91
Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 10 v 811 v 14
The market · Križevci win52% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 13:23
Our probability · Križevci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Križevci win55%52%+3
Draw24%26%−2
Lucko win21%22%−1
Over 2.5 goals47%52%−5
Both teams to score48%54%−6
Over 1.5 goals72%75%−3
Over 3.5 goals26%32%−6
Križevci or draw79%78%+1
Križevci clean sheet41%––
Lucko clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%
0123450 7.9 7.0 3.2 1 12.8 11.2 5.1 2 10.5 9.3 4.2 3 5.9 5.2 2.4 4 2.5 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Križevci down, Lucko across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsKRI 2–0 LUC · LUC 0–1 KRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 Sept

KRIŽEVCI

LWDWLL1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

LUCKO

LDLLLW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dugo Selo8+716
2Uskok Klis7+1115
3Bjelovar8+514
4Uljanik9−114
5Jarun7+513
6Trnje8+413
7Solin8+212
8Inter Zapresic8−111
9Grobničan Čavle9−611
10Zagora8+110
11Križevci8−310
12Hrvatski Dragovoljac8−410
13Slavonija Požega809
14Lucko8−28
15Koprivnica8−95
16Varteks Varaždin8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.