Koprivnica v Jarun prediction · Second NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KoprivnicaDrawJarun

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jarun 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jarun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Koprivnica 31%, draw 22%, Jarun 47%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Koprivnica v JarunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Koprivnica win31%

Draw22%

Jarun win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Koprivnica

Jarun

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Jarun	9	+5	15
16	Koprivnica	10	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jarun winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Jarun a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Koprivnica v Jarun~~1.53 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~16 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koprivnica win	31%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Jarun win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Koprivnica or draw	53%	–	–
Koprivnica clean sheet	16%	–	–
Jarun clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 6.3 5.9 3.7 1 5.1 9.3 8.6 5.5 2.7 2 3.9 7.0 6.5 4.1 2.0 3 3.6 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koprivnica down, Jarun across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,048 Second NL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Koprivnica at home: 0.75 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Jarun away: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Koprivnica, 1.90 for Jarun. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

KOPRIVNICA

LLDLLL1–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2

JARUN

DDWWDD3–3 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	+8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	+9	18
4	Jarun	9	+5	15
5	Solin	10	+4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	+3	15
7	Trnje	10	+2	14
8	Uljanik	10	−3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	−1	13
10	Zagora	10	+1	12
11	Križevci	10	−3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	−6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	−7	11
14	Lucko	10	−2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	−9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	−15	5