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Jarun v Varteks Varaždin

Jarun

1–0Full time

Varteks Varaždin

Second NL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion NK Jarun

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Jarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin JARUN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jarun win~~60%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jarun win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jarun 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
1′KICK-OFF Jarun v Varteks Varaždin
44′We said Jarun at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–19
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Jarun win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Jarun 0–0 Varteks Varaždin
47′SECOND HALF Jarun 0–0 Varteks Varaždin
83′⚽ GOAL · 80' Jarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
FTFULL TIME Jarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin
FTJarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin · Jarun win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jarun win60%

Draw21%

Varteks Varaždin win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion NK Jarun

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jarun winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

60% The market62%

Us60%

~~Market~~62%

We make Jarun a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarun win	60%	62%	−2
Draw	21%	22%	−2
Varteks Varaždin win	19%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Jarun or draw	81%	84%	−4
Jarun clean sheet	34%	–	–
Varteks Varaždin clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.5 4.8 2.6 1 9.0 9.3 5.1 2 9.0 9.5 5.1 3 6.3 6.6 3.6 4 3.4 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarun down, Varteks Varaždin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,026 Second NL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Jarun at home: 3.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Varteks Varaždin away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Jarun, 1.08 for Varteks Varaždin. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Second NL

JARUN

DDWDDW1–1 · 4–4 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 3–0

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN

LLWLDD0–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
2	Bjelovar	7	+7	14
3	Uljanik	8	+1	14
4	Trnje	7	+5	13
5	Dugo Selo	7	+5	13
6	Solin	7	+2	11
7	Jarun	6	+4	10
8	Križevci	8	−3	10
9	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
10	Zagora	7	+1	9
11	Slavonija Požega	7	0	8
12	Inter Zapresic	7	−2	8
13	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7
14	Lucko	7	−3	5
15	Koprivnica	7	−8	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	7	−8	5