Jarun v Bjelovar prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Jarun 2–2 Bjelovar JARUN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jarun win~~47%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.830

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jarun win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jarun 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Jarun v Bjelovar
17′Bjelovar score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–22–56
17′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Jarun 0–1 Bjelovar
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Bjelovar win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Jarun win 44%)
19′Bjelovar find the net on 19′. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–13–79
19′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–13–79
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Jarun 0–2 Bjelovar
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
41′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME Jarun 0–2 Bjelovar
46′SECOND HALF Jarun 0–2 Bjelovar
55′A goal for Jarun on 54′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–24–66
55′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–24–66
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Jarun 1–2 Bjelovar
58′Jarun score on 58′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–43–24
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Jarun 2–2 Bjelovar
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 33% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bjelovar win 67%)
59′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–44–24
59′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 32–44–24
64′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–48–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
77′We said Jarun at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Jarun win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Jarun 2–2 Bjelovar
FTJarun 2–2 Bjelovar · Jarun win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jarun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jarun 47%, draw 23%, Bjelovar 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Jarun v BjelovarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Jarun win47%

Draw23%

Bjelovar win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion NK Jarun

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jarun

Bjelovar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
4	Jarun	8	+5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jarun winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market44%

Us47%

~~Market~~44%

We make Jarun a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jarun v Bjelovar~~1.79 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~4 v 2

~~The market · Jarun win~~44% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jarun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarun win	47%	44%	+3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Bjelovar win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	35%	+5
Jarun or draw	69%	70%	−1
Jarun clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bjelovar clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.3 6.0 4.1 1 7.5 10.0 7.1 3.4 2 6.5 8.9 6.2 3.0 3 3.9 5.3 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarun down, Bjelovar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Jarun at home: 2.75 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Bjelovar away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Jarun, 1.41 for Bjelovar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept

JARUN

WDDWWD1–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

BJELOVAR

WWDDLW4–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5