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Model 1.2

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Inter Zapresic v Jarun

Inter Zapresic
2–2Full time
Jarun

Second NL · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Inter Zapresic 2–2 Jarun INTER ZAPRESIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Inter Zapresic win44%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.889
The market’s Brier score0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Zapresic win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Zapresic 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Inter Zapresic v Jarun
  4. 15′Inter Zapresic find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–14
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Inter Zapresic 1–0 Jarun
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 16′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–14
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  9. 34′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Inter Zapresic 1–0 Jarun
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Inter Zapresic 1–0 Jarun
  12. 50′A goal for Inter Zapresic on 50′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  13. 50′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  14. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Inter Zapresic 2–0 Jarun
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
  16. 52′A goal for Inter Zapresic on 50′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  17. 52′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  18. 53′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  20. 60′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  21. 77′Jarun score on 77′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  22. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Inter Zapresic 2–1 Jarun
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
  24. 78′We said Inter Zapresic at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  25. 80′Jarun find the net on 80′. 2–2. 2–2 · 15–73–12
  26. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Inter Zapresic 2–2 Jarun
  27. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
  28. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Inter Zapresic win 15%)
  29. 81′We said Inter Zapresic at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–11
  30. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 14–75–11
  31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  32. 85′We said Inter Zapresic at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
  33. 91′We said Inter Zapresic at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  34. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Inter Zapresic win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  35. FTFULL TIME Inter Zapresic 2–2 Jarun
  36. FTInter Zapresic 2–2 Jarun · Inter Zapresic win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Zapresic are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Zapresic 44%, draw 23%, Jarun 33%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Inter Zapresic v JarunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter Zapresic win44%
Draw23%
Jarun win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Zapresic

Jarun

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 10 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Jarun7+513
8Inter Zapresic8−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter zapresic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 11:13 · locked at kick-off
44% The market42%
Us44%
Market42%

We make Inter Zapresic a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Inter Zapresic v Jarun1.69 – 1.44
Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 29 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 11 v 138 v 5
The market · Inter Zapresic win42% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 13:23
Our probability · Inter Zapresic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Inter Zapresic win44%42%+2
Draw23%28%−5
Jarun win33%30%+3
Over 2.5 goals60%54%+6
Both teams to score61%59%+2
Over 1.5 goals81%77%+4
Over 3.5 goals38%34%+4
Inter Zapresic or draw67%70%−3
Inter Zapresic clean sheet24%––
Jarun clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.7 6.5 4.6 2.3 1 7.6 10.4 7.4 3.6 2 6.2 8.6 6.1 3.0 3 3.5 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Zapresic down, Jarun across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsJAR 1–1 INT · INT 0–1 JAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 29 Aug

INTER ZAPRESIC

DLWLDW2–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

JARUN

DWDDWW4–4 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dugo Selo8+716
2Uskok Klis7+1115
3Bjelovar8+514
4Uljanik9−114
5Jarun7+513
6Trnje8+413
7Solin8+212
8Inter Zapresic8−111
9Grobničan Čavle9−611
10Zagora8+110
11Križevci8−310
12Hrvatski Dragovoljac8−410
13Slavonija Požega809
14Lucko8−28
15Koprivnica8−95
16Varteks Varaždin8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.