Home › Football › Second NL › Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Uskok Klis

Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Uskok Klis

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

0–4Full time

Uskok Klis

Second NL · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–4 Uskok Klis USKOK KLIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uskok Klis win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hrvatski Dragovoljac win32%

Draw25%

Uskok Klis win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uskok klis winPublished 9 Oct 14:32

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Uskok Klis a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · uskok klis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hrvatski Dragovoljac win	32%	32%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Uskok Klis win	42%	41%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw	58%	59%	−1
Hrvatski Dragovoljac clean sheet	24%	–	–
Uskok Klis clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 9.9 7.2 3.5 1 8.4 11.8 8.6 4.2 2 5.2 7.3 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hrvatski Dragovoljac down, Uskok Klis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,024 Second NL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Uskok Klis away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, 1.46 for Uskok Klis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~USK 2–0 HRV · HRV 0–2 USK

Form · last six in Second NL

HRVATSKI DRAGOVOLJAC

LDWWLW0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–1

USKOK KLIS

WLWWLW3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bjelovar	7	+7	14
2	Trnje	7	+5	13
3	Dugo Selo	7	+5	13
4	Uskok Klis	6	+7	12
5	Solin	7	+2	11
6	Uljanik	7	−1	11
7	Jarun	6	+4	10
8	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	7	0	10
9	Križevci	7	−1	10
10	Zagora	7	+1	9
11	Slavonija Požega	7	0	8
12	Inter Zapresic	7	−2	8
13	Grobničan Čavle	7	−8	7
14	Lucko	7	−3	5
15	Koprivnica	7	−8	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	7	−8	5