Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Inter Zapresic prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–1 Inter Zapresic INTER ZAPRESIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Inter Zapresic win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Zapresic win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Zapresic 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Inter Zapresic
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Inter Zapresic win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–0 Inter Zapresic
46′Inter Zapresic find the net on 46′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–70
46′We said Inter Zapresic at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 8–21–70
46′SECOND HALF Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–0 Inter Zapresic
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–1 Inter Zapresic
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Inter Zapresic win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Inter Zapresic win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 40%)
60′We said Inter Zapresic at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Inter Zapresic win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
69′We said Inter Zapresic at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We said Inter Zapresic at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Inter Zapresic win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Inter Zapresic at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
83′A goal for Hrvatski Dragovoljac on 83′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–82–9
83′We said Inter Zapresic at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–1 Inter Zapresic
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Inter Zapresic win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Inter Zapresic win 90%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Inter Zapresic win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Inter Zapresic at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1–1 Inter Zapresic
FTHrvatski Dragovoljac 1–1 Inter Zapresic · Inter Zapresic win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Inter Zapresic just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 37%, draw 25%, Inter Zapresic 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Inter ZapresicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hrvatski Dragovoljac win37%

Draw25%

Inter Zapresic win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Inter Zapresic

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter zapresic winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Inter Zapresic a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Inter Zapresic~~1.34 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~13 v 9

~~The market · Inter Zapresic win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Zapresic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hrvatski Dragovoljac win	37%	37%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Inter Zapresic win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw	62%	64%	−2
Hrvatski Dragovoljac clean sheet	26%	–	–
Inter Zapresic clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 9.3 6.2 2.9 1 9.2 11.8 8.0 3.7 2 6.0 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hrvatski Dragovoljac down, Inter Zapresic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Zapresic away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, 1.36 for Inter Zapresic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

HRVATSKI DRAGOVOLJAC

WWLWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–4 · 0–3

INTER ZAPRESIC

LWLDWD2–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5