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Grobničan Čavle v Uljanik

Grobničan Čavle
2–0Full time
Uljanik

Second NL · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59
Grobničan Čavle 2–0 Uljanik ULJANIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uljanik win45%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.675
The market’s Brier score0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uljanik win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Uljanik was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 34–21–45
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Grobničan Čavle v Uljanik
  4. 2′Grobničan Čavle score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 55–19–26
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Grobničan Čavle 1–0 Uljanik
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Uljanik win: 45% at kick-off, 26% now
  7. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Grobničan Čavle win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Uljanik win 26%)
  8. 3′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 55–19–25
  9. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Uljanik win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  10. 8′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 56–20–24
  11. 30′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  12. 31′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Uljanik win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Grobničan Čavle 1–0 Uljanik
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Grobničan Čavle 1–0 Uljanik
  16. 47′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
  17. 61′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
  18. 64′Grobničan Čavle find the net on 64′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–7–2
  19. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Grobničan Čavle 2–0 Uljanik
  20. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Uljanik win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
  21. 65′We said Uljanik at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 92–6–1
  22. FTFULL TIME Grobničan Čavle 2–0 Uljanik
  23. FTGrobničan Čavle 2–0 Uljanik · Uljanik win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uljanik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grobničan Čavle 34%, draw 20%, Uljanik 45%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Grobničan Čavle v UljanikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Grobničan Čavle win34%
Draw20%
Uljanik win45%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grobničan Čavle

Uljanik

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 9 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Uljanik8+114
14Grobničan Čavle8−88

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uljanik winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
45% The market49%
Us45%
Market49%

We make Uljanik a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Grobničan Čavle v Uljanik1.81 – 2.10
Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 8 v 1414 v 4
The market · Uljanik win49% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 13:23
Our probability · Uljanik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Grobničan Čavle win34%26%+8
Draw20%25%−5
Uljanik win45%49%−4
Over 2.5 goals74%60%+14
Both teams to score72%61%+11
Over 1.5 goals89%79%+10
Over 3.5 goals54%39%+15
Grobničan Čavle or draw55%51%+4
Grobničan Čavle clean sheet13%––
Uljanik clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.7%
0123450 2.2 4.5 4.5 3.1 1 3.9 7.6 7.7 5.3 2.8 2 3.4 6.8 6.8 4.7 2.5 3 2.1 4.1 4.1 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Grobničan Čavle down, Uljanik across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting3.62
Over 2.56 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsULJ 2–5 GRO · GRO 3–0 ULJ · GRO 2–2 ULJ · ULJ 2–1 GRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 4 Sept

GROBNIČAN ČAVLE

DLWLLD2–2 · 0–4 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–1

ULJANIK

WDLDLW3–0 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dugo Selo8+716
2Uskok Klis7+1115
3Bjelovar8+514
4Uljanik8+114
5Jarun7+513
6Trnje8+413
7Solin8+212
8Inter Zapresic8−111
9Zagora8+110
10Križevci8−310
11Hrvatski Dragovoljac8−410
12Slavonija Požega809
13Lucko8−28
14Grobničan Čavle8−88
15Koprivnica8−95
16Varteks Varaždin8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.