Dugo Selo v Koprivnica prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Dugo Selo 2–0 Koprivnica DUGO SELO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dugo Selo win~~55%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.204

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dugo Selo win at 55%.
2′Much as we predicted: Dugo Selo was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
2′KICK-OFF Dugo Selo v Koprivnica
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Dugo Selo win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′We said Dugo Selo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–36–21
45′HALF-TIME Dugo Selo 0–0 Koprivnica
46′SECOND HALF Dugo Selo 0–0 Koprivnica
52′We said Dugo Selo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
53′A goal for Dugo Selo on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Dugo Selo 1–0 Koprivnica
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Dugo Selo win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
54′We published Dugo Selo at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–4
68′We published Dugo Selo at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Dugo Selo win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
78′We published Dugo Selo at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We published Dugo Selo at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Dugo Selo win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
90′Dugo Selo score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dugo Selo 2–0 Koprivnica
91′We published Dugo Selo at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dugo Selo 2–0 Koprivnica
FTDugo Selo 2–0 Koprivnica · Dugo Selo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dugo Selo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dugo Selo 55%, draw 23%, Koprivnica 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dugo Selo v KoprivnicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dugo Selo win55%

Draw23%

Koprivnica win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dugo Selo

Koprivnica

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dugo selo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market63%

Us55%

~~Market~~63%

We make Dugo Selo a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dugo Selo v Koprivnica~~1.80 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~3 v 16

~~The market · Dugo Selo win~~63% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dugo Selo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dugo Selo win	55%	63%	−8
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Koprivnica win	23%	16%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Dugo Selo or draw	77%	84%	−7
Dugo Selo clean sheet	35%	–	–
Koprivnica clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.1 6.3 3.3 1 10.6 10.6 5.7 2.0 2 9.2 9.5 5.0 3 5.5 5.7 3.0 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dugo Selo down, Koprivnica across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Second NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Dugo Selo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Koprivnica away: 1.40 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Dugo Selo, 1.05 for Koprivnica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 12 Sept

DUGO SELO

LWWWWL1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

KOPRIVNICA

LLLDLL0–3 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uskok Klis	9	+14	21
2	Bjelovar	9	+9	17
3	Dugo Selo	9	+6	16
4	Jarun	8	+5	14
5	Trnje	9	+4	14
6	Uljanik	10	−3	14
7	Slavonija Požega	9	+1	12
8	Solin	9	+1	12
9	Inter Zapresic	9	−1	12
10	Zagora	9	+1	11
11	Križevci	9	−3	11
12	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	9	−7	10
14	Lucko	9	−2	9
15	Varteks Varaždin	9	−6	8
16	Koprivnica	9	−13	5