Bjelovar v Koprivnica prediction · Second NL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Bjelovar 4–0 Koprivnica BJELOVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bjelovar win~~60%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bjelovar win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bjelovar 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–20
1′KICK-OFF Bjelovar v Koprivnica
6′A goal for Bjelovar on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–8
6′We said Bjelovar at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Bjelovar 1–0 Koprivnica
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Bjelovar win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
45′HALF-TIME Bjelovar 1–0 Koprivnica
46′SECOND HALF Bjelovar 1–0 Koprivnica
53′A goal for Bjelovar on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
54′We said Bjelovar at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
66′Bjelovar score on 66′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bjelovar 2–0 Koprivnica
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bjelovar win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
67′We said Bjelovar at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
82′We said Bjelovar at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Bjelovar win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
85′Bjelovar find the net on 85′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bjelovar 3–0 Koprivnica
86′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′A goal for Bjelovar on 87′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bjelovar 4–0 Koprivnica
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bjelovar 4–0 Koprivnica
FTBjelovar 4–0 Koprivnica · Bjelovar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bjelovar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bjelovar 60%, draw 20%, Koprivnica 20%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Bjelovar v KoprivnicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bjelovar win60%

Draw20%

Koprivnica win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bjelovar

Koprivnica

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Second NL

Last match: 12 Oct · Second NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bjelovar	8	+5	14
15	Koprivnica	8	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bjelovar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:34 · locked at kick-off

60% The market53%

Us60%

~~Market~~53%

We make Bjelovar a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bjelovar v Koprivnica~~2.16 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~3 v 15

~~The market · Bjelovar win~~53% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bjelovar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bjelovar win	60%	53%	+7
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Koprivnica win	20%	22%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	58%	+6
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	38%	+4
Bjelovar or draw	80%	78%	+2
Bjelovar clean sheet	32%	–	–
Koprivnica clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.9 4.4 2.5 1 8.0 9.0 5.2 2.0 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 6.0 6.7 3.9 4 3.3 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bjelovar down, Koprivnica across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Second NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bjelovar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Koprivnica away: 1.75 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Bjelovar, 1.16 for Koprivnica. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOP 0–3 BJE · BJE 3–1 KOP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second NL this season · since 5 Sept

BJELOVAR

WWWDDL4–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

KOPRIVNICA

LLLLDL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dugo Selo	8	+7	16
2	Uskok Klis	7	+11	15
3	Bjelovar	8	+5	14
4	Uljanik	9	−1	14
5	Jarun	7	+5	13
6	Trnje	8	+4	13
7	Solin	8	+2	12
8	Inter Zapresic	8	−1	11
9	Grobničan Čavle	9	−6	11
10	Zagora	8	+1	10
11	Križevci	8	−3	10
12	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	8	−4	10
13	Slavonija Požega	8	0	9
14	Lucko	8	−2	8
15	Koprivnica	8	−9	5
16	Varteks Varaždin	8	−9	5