Rudes v HNK Rijeka prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka HNK RIJEKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HNK Rijeka win~~63%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.210

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.155

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Rijeka win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: HNK Rijeka 63% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 16–20–64
1′KICK-OFF Rudes v HNK Rijeka
4′We said HNK Rijeka at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 5–11–84
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rudes 0–1 HNK Rijeka
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' HNK Rijeka win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
5′Samuele Vignato scores for HNK Rijeka on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–84
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 4–12–83
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Branko pavic · HNK Rijeka
45′SECOND HALF Rudes 0–1 HNK Rijeka
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rudes · On: Vid Seitz · Off: Xavier Cabrita Fernandes
46′HALF-TIME Rudes 0–1 HNK Rijeka
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Lovre Rogić · Rudes
55′We said HNK Rijeka at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' HNK Rijeka · On: Ivan Cubelic · Off: Justas Lasickas
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' HNK Rijeka · On: D. Adu-Adjei · Off: Jakov Puljić
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rudes · On: Lenny Ilecic · Off: Ivan Đoric
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rudes · On: Kristijan Lovrić · Off: Saad El Haddad
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Rudes
72′Rudes are down to ten from 71′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 1–11–88
74′We said HNK Rijeka at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Rudes 0–2 HNK Rijeka
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' HNK Rijeka win: 63% at kick-off, 99% now
75′74′: Toni Fruk on the scoresheet for HNK Rijeka, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′We said HNK Rijeka at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' HNK Rijeka · On: Amer Gojak · Off: Branko pavic
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rudes · On: Jurica Poldrugac · Off: Junior Fernandes
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rudes · On: filip taraba · Off: Felipe Curcio
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kristijan Lovrić · Rudes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HNK Rijeka · On: Niko Janković · Off: Toni Fruk
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HNK Rijeka · On: Noel Bodetic · Off: Samuele Vignato
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Niko Janković · HNK Rijeka
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka
95′Rudes pull one back on 90′ through Noa skoko. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
95′1–2 at the end. Our 63% on HNK Rijeka comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka
FTRudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka · HNK Rijeka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Rijeka are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudes 16%, draw 21%, HNK Rijeka 63%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Rudes v HNK RijekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Rudes win16%

Draw21%

HNK Rijeka win63%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Radnik

RefereeAntonio Skobic

Line-ups

Rudes

3-4-2-1

HNK Rijeka

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudes

HNK Rijeka

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · HNL

Last match: 11 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	HNK Rijeka	8	+3	14
9	Rudes	9	−13	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rudes

3-4-2-1

95 L. Rogić

42 M. Zebić

4 V. Celjak

29 S. Bralić

2 B. Unušić

24 I. Đorić

37 N. Skoko

27 Felipe Curcio

28 Xavi

88 S. El Haddad

78 J. Fernándes

Coach · A. Peternac

Substitutes

9 · Josip Bralic

33 · J. Pejic

1 · Filip Holjevac

7 · L. Ilečić

14 · T. Kolega

34 · K. Lovrić

26 · I. Žutić

30 · M. Šlogar

44 · F. Taraba

10 · V. Seitz

8 · Luka Popovic

11 · J. Poldrugač

HNK Rijeka

4-1-4-1

13 I. Vekič

22 A. Oreč

45 A. Majstorović

51 A. Husic

34 M. Devetak

6 B. Pavić

23 J. Lasickas

26 Tiago Dantas

10 T. Fruk

19 S. Vignato

21 J. Puljić

Coach · M. Kek

Substitutes

14 · A. Gojak

8 · I. Ćubelić

99 · A. Todorović

12 · Domagoj Ivan Maric

7 · Y. Kabadayı

77 · A. Jurič

4 · N. Janković

15 · Goran Grulović

91 · N. Bodetić

5 · A. Barco

18 · D. Adu-Adjei

3 · M. Živković

Our number · hnk rijeka winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

63% The market68%

Us63%

~~Market~~68%

We make HNK Rijeka a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudes v HNK Rijeka~~0.94 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~9 v 5

~~The market · HNK Rijeka win~~68% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HNK Rijeka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudes win	16%	12%	+4
Draw	21%	19%	+2
HNK Rijeka win	63%	68%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Rudes or draw	37%	32%	+5
Rudes clean sheet	13%	–	–
HNK Rijeka clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.4%

0123450 5.8 9.3 10.4 7.3 4.0 1 3.9 10.1 9.5 6.6 3.5 2 2.3 4.5 4.5 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudes down, HNK Rijeka across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 944 HNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudes at home: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). HNK Rijeka away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Rudes, 2.11 for HNK Rijeka. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HNK 2–1 RUD · RUD 0–3 HNK · RUD 0–1 HNK · HNK 3–0 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 21 Aug

RUDES

WLLLDW4–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1

HNK RIJEKA

WDWDWL3–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	9	+9	19
2	NK Varazdin	9	+7	18
3	Dinamo Zagreb	8	+7	16
4	NK Osijek	9	+4	16
5	HNK Rijeka	8	+3	14
6	Istra 1961	9	+3	12
7	NK Slaven Belupo	9	−6	10
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	9	−6	7
9	Rudes	9	−13	7
10	HNK Gorica	9	−8	5