Rudes v Dinamo Zagreb prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RudesDrawDinamo Zagreb

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dinamo Zagreb 78%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudes 9%, draw 13%, Dinamo Zagreb 78%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Rudes v Dinamo ZagrebBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rudes win9%

Draw13%

Dinamo Zagreb win78%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSC Rudes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudes

Dinamo Zagreb

15Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · HNL

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
10	Rudes	10	−14	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo zagreb winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 78% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–3.1, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudes v Dinamo Zagreb~~0.92 – 3.10

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 19~~10 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudes win	9%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Dinamo Zagreb win	78%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Rudes or draw	22%	–	–
Rudes clean sheet	5%	–	–
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 5.3 8.5 8.5 6.6 4.31 5.9 7.7 7.6 5.8 3.72 2.6 3.7 3.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudes down, Dinamo Zagreb across0–5 goals a side shown (89.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudes at home: 1.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Zagreb away: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Rudes, 3.10 for Dinamo Zagreb. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DIN 4–0 RUD · DIN 3–3 RUD · RUD 0–3 DIN · DIN 1–0 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

RUDES

LLLDWL0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

DINAMO ZAGREB

DWLWLW2–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7