NK Varazdin v NK Slaven Belupo prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

NK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo NK VARAZDIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NK Varazdin win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.977

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NK Varazdin win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF NK Varazdin v NK Slaven Belupo
2′Little has changed for our model: NK Varazdin 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
6′We said NK Varazdin at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' NK Varazdin 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
7′Iuri Tavares scores for NK Varazdin on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
29′We said NK Varazdin at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Silvijo Čabraja · NK Slaven Belupo
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Josip Mitrović · NK Slaven Belupo
45′SECOND HALF NK Varazdin 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Varazdin · On: David Puclin · Off: Petar Bočkaj
46′HALF-TIME NK Varazdin 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Iuri Tavares · NK Varazdin
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
64′We said NK Varazdin at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
65′We said NK Varazdin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Mihail Caimacov · Off: Leon Bošnjak
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' NK Varazdin · On: Matej Vuk · Off: Iuri Tavares
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Slaven Belupo
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 29% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was NK Varazdin win 85%)
66′66′: Josip Mitrović on the scoresheet for NK Slaven Belupo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–57–15
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' NK Varazdin · On: Sven Lesjak · Off: Luka Posinković
69′We said NK Varazdin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–22–74
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' NK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 5% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' NK Slaven Belupo win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 60%)
70′We said NK Varazdin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
70′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–21–75
71′NK Slaven Belupo ahead on 70′ through lovro banovec. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
71′We said NK Varazdin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–63–13
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' NK Varazdin 2–2 NK Slaven Belupo
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was NK Slaven Belupo win 76%)
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 23–64–12
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' NK Varazdin · On: Valentin Akrap · Off: Ivan Canjuga
73′luka mamic scores for NK Varazdin on 72′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 23–65–12
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' NK Varazdin
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' NK Varazdin win: 53% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' NK Slaven Belupo win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 68%)
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' NK Slaven Belupo
80′NK Slaven Belupo are down to ten from 79′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 1–14–85
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NK Varazdin · On: Stipe Jurić · Off: Novak Tepsic
91′NK Varazdin have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Karlo Sentic · NK Slaven Belupo
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Aleksa Latkovic · NK Varazdin
95′1–2 at the end. Our 53% on NK Varazdin misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME NK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo
FTNK Varazdin 1–2 NK Slaven Belupo · NK Varazdin win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Varazdin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Varazdin 53%, draw 27%, NK Slaven Belupo 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on NK Varazdin v NK Slaven BelupoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NK Varazdin win53%

Draw27%

NK Slaven Belupo win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Anđelko Herjavec

RefereeAnte Terzic

Line-ups

NK Varazdin

4-2-3-1

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Varazdin

NK Slaven Belupo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	NK Varazdin	10	+6	18
8	NK Slaven Belupo	10	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin

4-2-3-1

33 J. Silić

30 L. Posinkovic

13 M. Mladenovski

16 N. Tepšić

20 G. Sikošek

28 I. Canjuga

8 T. Duvnjak

12 P. Bočkaj

22 L. Mamić

38 Iuri Tavares

10 A. Latković

Coach · N. Šafarić

Substitutes

44 · M. Barać

9 · S. Jurić

5 · Sven Lesjak

19 · L. Lukanić

1 · R. McCrorie

21 · I. Posavec

6 · D. Puclin

14 · R. Punčec

7 · M. Vuk

4 · L. Škaričić

17 · V. Akrap

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

30 K. Sentić

18 F. Krušelj

15 J. Mersinaj

4 D. Kovačić

77 I. Urata

22 A. Adeshina

21 L. Crepulja

11 J. Mitrović

24 L. Bošnjak

8 L. Banovec

90 I. Nestorovski

Coach · S. Čabraja

Substitutes

10 · M. Caimacov

88 · D. Bosak

5 · I. Cvetko

23 · A. Jónsson

29 · Lovro Loncaric

2 · V. Međimorec

45 · V. Papac

12 · M. Pavli

14 · Losika Ratshukudu

19 · L. Zahora

32 · I. Čović

Our number · nk varazdin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make NK Varazdin a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Varazdin v NK Slaven Belupo~~1.61 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~3 v 8

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NK Varazdin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Varazdin win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
NK Slaven Belupo win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
NK Varazdin or draw	79%	–	–
NK Varazdin clean sheet	40%	–	–
NK Slaven Belupo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.1 6.5 3.4 1 12.0 12.6 5.4 2 10.3 9.3 4.3 3 5.5 5.0 2.3 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Varazdin down, NK Slaven Belupo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 949 HNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Varazdin at home: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). NK Slaven Belupo away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for NK Varazdin, 0.92 for NK Slaven Belupo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKS 1–4 NKV · NKV 2–1 NKS · NKS 0–2 NKV · NKV 1–3 NKS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

NK VARAZDIN

WDDDWL2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

NK SLAVEN BELUPO

LWLDWL0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	+6	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	−4	10
8	NK Slaven Belupo	10	−10	10
9	Rudes	10	−14	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	−8	6