NK Slaven Belupo v Istra 1961 prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NK Slaven BelupoDrawIstra 1961

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NK Slaven Belupo 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Slaven Belupo 40%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on NK Slaven Belupo v Istra 1961Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo win40%

Draw28%

Istra 1961 win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Slaven Belupo

Istra 1961

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · HNL

Last match: 17 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nk slaven belupo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make NK Slaven Belupo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Slaven Belupo v Istra 1961~~1.43 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~6 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Slaven Belupo win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Istra 1961 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
NK Slaven Belupo or draw	67%	–	–
NK Slaven Belupo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Istra 1961 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.9 7.5 5.4 2.3 1 8.6 13.1 7.7 3.3 2 6.9 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Slaven Belupo down, Istra 1961 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Slaven Belupo at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Istra 1961 away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for NK Slaven Belupo, 1.27 for Istra 1961. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IST 3–0 NKS · IST 3–1 NKS · NKS 1–0 IST · IST 1–1 NKS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

NK SLAVEN BELUPO

WLDWLW2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 2–1

ISTRA 1961

DDWLWL2–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7