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NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Rijeka

NK Slaven Belupo
4–1Full time
HNK Rijeka

HNL · SUN 11 OCT · Gradski Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka HNK RIJEKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said HNK Rijeka win48%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.887
The market’s Brier score1.081

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Rijeka win at 48%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: HNK Rijeka 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
  3. 7′HNK Rijeka ahead on 7′ through Tiago Dantas. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
  4. 8′HNK Rijeka ahead on 7′ through Tiago Dantas. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–16–75
  5. 9′We said HNK Rijeka at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–16–75
  6. 11′We said HNK Rijeka at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–16–75
  7. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–76
  8. 36′Jon Mersinaj scores for NK Slaven Belupo on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–36–41
  9. 37′Jon Mersinaj scores for NK Slaven Belupo on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–36–41
  10. 50′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 21–43–36
  11. 54′52′ and it is 2–1: lovro banovec on the scoresheet for NK Slaven Belupo. 2–1 · 66–25–9
  12. 57′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 67–25–8
  13. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
  14. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  17. 60′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 19–50–31
  18. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' NK Slaven Belupo 2–2 HNK Rijeka · lovro banovec
  19. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  20. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
  21. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
  22. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was NK Slaven Belupo win 19%)
  23. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' NK Slaven Belupo win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
  24. 60′⚽ GOAL · 61' NK Slaven Belupo 2–2 HNK Rijeka · Tiago Dantas
  25. 61′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 18–51–30
  26. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
  27. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was NK Slaven Belupo win 19%)
  28. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' HNK Rijeka · On: Jakov Puljić · Off: Niko Janković Corrected
  29. 64′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 72–23–6
  30. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
  31. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' NK Slaven Belupo win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 23%)
  32. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
  33. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was NK Slaven Belupo win 19%)
  34. 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–22–5
  35. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' NK Slaven Belupo win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 23%)
  37. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' HNK Rijeka win: 48% at kick-off, 31% now
  38. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was NK Slaven Belupo win 19%)
  39. 68′NK Slaven Belupo ahead on 68′ through Ilija Nestorovski. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
  40. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 HNK Rijeka · lovro banovec
  41. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 HNK Rijeka · Ilija Nestorovski
  42. 71′NK Slaven Belupo ahead on 68′ through Ilija Nestorovski. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  43. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka · Ilija Nestorovski
  44. 73′⚽ GOAL · 74' NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka · Ilija Nestorovski
  45. 74′Ilija Nestorovski scores for NK Slaven Belupo on 74′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  46. 77′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' HNK Rijeka · On: Amer Gojak · Off: Tiago Dantas Corrected
  48. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' HNK Rijeka · On: Ante Matej Juric · Off: D. Adu-Adjei Corrected
  49. 80′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  50. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' HNK Rijeka · On: Noel Bodetic · Off: Justas Lasickas Corrected
  51. 86′Ilija Nestorovski scores for NK Slaven Belupo on 74′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Vito Papac · Off: Ilija Nestorovski Corrected
  53. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Leon Bošnjak · Off: lovro banovec Corrected
  54. 90′We said HNK Rijeka at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  55. FTFULL TIME NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka
  56. FTNK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka · HNK Rijeka win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

NK Slaven Belupo win24%
Draw28%
HNK Rijeka win48%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueGradski Stadion

RefereeAnte Terzic

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

HNK Rijeka

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Rijeka

23Days since last match21
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
5HNK Rijeka7+614
8NK Slaven Belupo8−97

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

32 I. Covic

18 F. Kruselj

6 T. Bozic

15 J. Mersinaj

77 I. Urata

22 A. Adeshina

17 F. Mazar

7 M. Dabro

8 L. Banovec

11 J. Mitrovic

90 I. Nestorovski

Coach · Silvijo Cabraja

Substitutes

30 · K. Sentic

4 · D. Kovacic

2 · V. Medjimorec

20 · M. Petrovic

21 · L. Crepulja

88 · D. Bosak

23 · A. Jonsson

24 · L. Bosnjak

19 · L. Zahora

29 · L. Loncar

14 · L. Ratshukudu

45 · V. Papac

HNK Rijeka

4-2-3-1

13 I. Vekic

22 A. Orec

45 A. Majstorovic

51 A. Husic

23 J. Lasickas

8 I. Cubelic

5 A. Barco

4 N. Jankovic

26 T. Dantas

19 S. Vignato

18 D. Adu Adjei

Coach · Matjaz Kek

Substitutes

99 · A. Todorovic

12 · D. I. Maric

34 · M. Devetak

3 · M. Zivkovic

91 · N. Bodetic

14 · A. Gojak

6 · B. Pavic

10 · T. Fruk

21 · J. Puljic

7 · Y. Kabadayi

77 · A. Juric

15 · G. Grulovic

Our number · hnk rijeka winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
48% The market59%
Us48%
Market59%

We make HNK Rijeka a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1811 OCT 15:34
Our probability · hnk rijeka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
NK Slaven Belupo win24%18%+6
Draw28%23%+4
HNK Rijeka win48%59%−11
Over 2.5 goals47%54%−7
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals73%77%−4
Over 3.5 goals26%33%−8
NK Slaven Belupo or draw52%41%+11
NK Slaven Belupo clean sheet22%––
HNK Rijeka clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.0 11.0 9.2 4.8 1 6.9 13.0 9.2 4.7 2 4.0 6.1 4.7 2.4 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+NK Slaven Belupo down, HNK Rijeka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.55
Over 2.510 of 20
Both scored9 of 20
Last meetingsNKS 0–2 HNK · HNK 2–2 NKS · NKS 1–1 HNK · HNK 2–0 NKS

Form · last six in HNL

NK SLAVEN BELUPO

LWLWLD0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

HNK RIJEKA

LWDWDW0–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1HNK Hajduk Split9+919
2Dinamo Zagreb8+716
3NK Osijek9+416
4NK Varazdin8+615
5HNK Rijeka7+614
6Istra 19619+312
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8−57
8NK Slaven Belupo8−97
9Rudes9−137
10HNK Gorica9−85

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.