NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

NK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb DINAMO ZAGREB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb win~~62%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 17–21–62
1′KICK-OFF NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb
16′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Dinamo Zagreb win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
17′16′: Dani Rodríguez on the scoresheet for Dinamo Zagreb, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–13–82
31′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Dinamo Zagreb win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
32′Dinamo Zagreb ahead on 31′ through Dion Drena Beljo. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' NK Slaven Belupo · On: David Bosak · Off: Filip mazar
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' NK Slaven Belupo 0–3 Dinamo Zagreb
41′Dion Drena Beljo scores for Dinamo Zagreb on 40′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–3–96
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' NK Slaven Belupo 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb
45′SECOND HALF NK Slaven Belupo 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb
47′45′: Jon Mersinaj on the scoresheet for NK Slaven Belupo, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–96
47′HALF-TIME NK Slaven Belupo 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Lukas Zahora · Off: Lovre loncar
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Leon Bošnjak · Off: lovro banovec
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Lukas Kacavenda · Off: Luka Stojkovic
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Iker Almena Horcajo · Off: Dani Rodríguez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Miha Zajc · Off: Kirill Kravtsov
65′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 Dinamo Zagreb
66′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
67′Dinamo Zagreb ahead on 65′ through Miha Zajc. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Smail Prevljak · Off: Dion Drena Beljo
70′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' NK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb
72′Niko Galesic scores for Dinamo Zagreb on 71′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Fran Topic · Off: Josip Mišić
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Ljuban Crepulja · Off: Adeshina Adetunji
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' NK Slaven Belupo · On: Losika Ratshukudu · Off: Josip Mitrović
92′Full time, 1–5. We called Dinamo Zagreb at 62% — that one lands. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME NK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb
FTNK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb · Dinamo Zagreb win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Slaven Belupo 17%, draw 21%, Dinamo Zagreb 62%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo ZagrebBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo win17%

Draw21%

Dinamo Zagreb win62%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGradski Stadion

RefereeDuje Strukan

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

Dinamo Zagreb

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Slaven Belupo

Dinamo Zagreb

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · HNL

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dinamo Zagreb	8	+7	16
8	NK Slaven Belupo	9	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo

4-2-3-1

32 I. Čović

18 F. Krušelj

4 D. Kovačić

15 J. Mersinaj

77 I. Urata

22 A. Adeshina

17 F. Mažar

29 Lovro Loncaric

8 L. Banovec

11 J. Mitrović

90 I. Nestorovski

Coach · S. Čabraja

Substitutes

24 · L. Bošnjak

21 · L. Crepulja

5 · I. Cvetko

23 · A. Jónsson

99 · F. Kutlesa

2 · V. Međimorec

45 · V. Papac

12 · M. Pavli

14 · Losika Ratshukudu

30 · K. Sentić

19 · L. Zahora

88 · D. Bosak

Dinamo Zagreb

4-2-3-1

24 D. Kotarski

25 M. Valinčić

15 N. Galešić

26 S. McKenna

3 B. Goda

5 K. Kravtsov

27 J. Mišić

7 Dani Rodríguez

10 L. Stojković

99 M. Oršić

9 D. Beljo

Coach · Mario Kovacevic

Substitutes

11 · A. Hoxha

44 · I. Filipović

36 · Sergi Domínguez

23 · Iker Almena

17 · L. Ivanušec

80 · L. Kačavenda

14 · S. Prevljak

22 · Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf

6 · S. Radeljić

13 · Paul Bismarck Tabinas

30 · F. Topić

8 · M. Zajc

Our number · dinamo zagreb winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market68%

Us62%

~~Market~~68%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb~~1.06 – 2.19

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~8 v 5

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb win~~68% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Slaven Belupo win	17%	13%	+4
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Dinamo Zagreb win	62%	68%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
NK Slaven Belupo or draw	38%	32%	+6
NK Slaven Belupo clean sheet	12%	–	–
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.8 7.8 9.2 6.7 3.7 1 3.5 9.7 9.6 7.0 3.9 2 2.3 4.8 5.1 3.7 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Slaven Belupo down, Dinamo Zagreb across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 947 HNL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Slaven Belupo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Zagreb away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for NK Slaven Belupo, 2.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–0 NKS · NKS 1–4 DIN · DIN 4–2 NKS · NKS 2–5 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 22 Aug

NK SLAVEN BELUPO

WLWLDW2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–1

DINAMO ZAGREB

WDWLWL3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	9	+9	19
2	NK Varazdin	9	+7	18
3	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
4	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
5	Dinamo Zagreb	8	+7	16
6	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	−4	10
8	NK Slaven Belupo	9	−6	10
9	Rudes	10	−14	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	−8	6