NK Osijek v Rudes prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NK OsijekDrawRudes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NK Osijek 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Osijek are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Osijek 65%, draw 20%, Rudes 14%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on NK Osijek v RudesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NK Osijek win65%

Draw20%

Rudes win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueOpus Arena

RefereeMateo Erceg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Osijek

Rudes

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · HNL

Last match: 16 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
10	Rudes	10	−14	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nk osijek winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off

65% The market64%

Us65%

~~Market~~64%

We make NK Osijek a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Osijek v Rudes~~2.25 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~4 v 10

~~The market · NK Osijek win~~64% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NK Osijek win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Osijek win	65%	64%	+1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Rudes win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
NK Osijek or draw	86%	85%	+1
NK Osijek clean sheet	39%	–	–
Rudes clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%

0123450 5.1 3.3 1 8.6 9.5 4.2 2 10.2 9.5 4.5 3 7.7 7.0 3.3 4 4.4 4.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Osijek down, Rudes across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Osijek at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rudes away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for NK Osijek, 0.94 for Rudes. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RUD 1–6 NKO · RUD 2–3 NKO · NKO 2–0 RUD · NKO 3–0 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

NK OSIJEK

WLWDLD3–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

RUDES

LLLDWL0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7