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NK Osijek v Istra 1961

NK Osijek

1–3Full time

Istra 1961

HNL · SAT 10 OCT · Opus Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961 NK OSIJEK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NK Osijek win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NK Osijek win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: NK Osijek was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–27
5′2′ and it is 1–0: Simun Mikolcic on the scoresheet for NK Osijek. 1–0 · 74–17–9
8′We published NK Osijek at 46%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
9′2′ and it is 1–0: Simun Mikolcic on the scoresheet for NK Osijek. 1–0 · 74–17–9
13′We published NK Osijek at 46%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
24′We published NK Osijek at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
25′We published NK Osijek at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
36′Istra 1961 ahead on 34′ through Antonio Mauric. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–37–24
37′Istra 1961 ahead on 34′ through Antonio Mauric. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–37–24
39′Much as we predicted: NK Osijek was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 1–1 · 38–38–24
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Osijek · On: ivano kolarik · Off: Emin Hasic Corrected
45′HALF-TIME NK Osijek 1–1 Istra 1961
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was NK Osijek win 36%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Istra 1961 · On: Dukan Ahmeti · Off: Antonio Mauric Corrected
46′SECOND HALF NK Osijek 1–1 Istra 1961
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was NK Osijek win 36%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was NK Osijek win 36%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was NK Osijek win 36%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' NK Osijek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was NK Osijek win 36%)
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' NK Osijek 1–2 Istra 1961 · Antonio Mauric
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' NK Osijek 1–2 Istra 1961 · Nik Skafar Zuzic
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' NK Osijek · On: Admir ljatifi · Off: Domagoj Bukvic Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' NK Osijek · On: Ivan Dolček · Off: Álejandro Cantero Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' NK Osijek · On: Oleksandr Petrusenko · Off: Luka vrbancic Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' NK Osijek · On: David Kalem · Off: Marcel Heister Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Demirel hodzic · Istra 1961
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Simun Mikolcic · NK Osijek
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Gustavo albarracin · Istra 1961
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Armando León · NK Osijek
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Istra 1961 · On: Silvio Gorican · Off: Nik Skafar Zuzic Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Istra 1961 · On: Matija Kablar · Off: Gustavo albarracin Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961 · Nik Skafar Zuzic
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961 · Dukan Ahmeti
FTFULL TIME NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961
FTNK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961 · NK Osijek win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

NK Osijek win46%

Draw29%

Istra 1961 win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Opus Arena

Referee · Ivan Vukancic

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

NK Osijek

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Malenica

22 J. Kruiver

98 I. Jezic

33 E. Hasic

2 M. Heister

23 L. Vrbancic

8 S. Mikolcic

39 D. Bukvic

11 L. Tunjic

21 A. Cantero

79 A. Leon

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Curcija

26 · L. Jelenic

49 · I. Kolarik

24 · L. Posavec

47 · D. Kalem

67 · B. Bakti

9 · I. Baric

16 · O. Petrusenko

18 · N. Farkas

7 · I. Dolcek

30 · A. Ljatifi

99 · Balelo

Istra 1961

4-2-3-1

1 F. Kolic

44 R. Hrvatin

3 M. Nasraoui

4 R. Kumar

13 N. Sepic

88 D. Doumbia

8 A. Mauric

22 E. Frederiksen

25 G. Albarracin

30 N. Skafar Zuzic

9 Isaac

Coach · Javi Cabello

Substitutes

40 · J. Paus-Kunst

12 · R. Banovac

16 · S. Miettinen

66 · M. Momoh

5 · D. Hodzic

20 · D. Ahmeti

34 · M. Kablar

27 · D. Celija

11 · S. Gorican

23 · S. Ukich

39 · T. Brajkovic

24 · I. Svraka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

NK Osijek

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Malenica

22 J. Kruiver

98 I. Jezic

33 E. Hasic

2 M. Heister

23 L. Vrbancic

8 S. Mikolcic

39 D. Bukvic

11 L. Tunjic

21 A. Cantero

79 A. Leon

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Curcija

26 · L. Jelenic

49 · I. Kolarik

24 · L. Posavec

47 · D. Kalem

67 · B. Bakti

9 · I. Baric

16 · O. Petrusenko

18 · N. Farkas

7 · I. Dolcek

30 · A. Ljatifi

99 · Balelo

Istra 1961

4-2-3-1

1 F. Kolic

44 R. Hrvatin

3 M. Nasraoui

4 R. Kumar

13 N. Sepic

88 D. Doumbia

8 A. Mauric

22 E. Frederiksen

25 G. Albarracin

30 N. Skafar Zuzic

9 Isaac

Coach · Javi Cabello

Substitutes

40 · J. Paus-Kunst

12 · R. Banovac

16 · S. Miettinen

66 · M. Momoh

5 · D. Hodzic

20 · D. Ahmeti

34 · M. Kablar

27 · D. Celija

11 · S. Gorican

23 · S. Ukich

39 · T. Brajkovic

24 · I. Svraka

Our number · nk osijek winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make NK Osijek a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nk osijek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Osijek win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Istra 1961 win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−12
NK Osijek or draw	74%	72%	+2
NK Osijek clean sheet	36%	–	–
Istra 1961 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.7 7.6 4.4 1 11.2 13.5 6.3 2.2 2 8.9 8.9 4.6 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Osijek down, Istra 1961 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 940 HNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.90 goals a meeting; 11 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Osijek at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Istra 1961 away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for NK Osijek, 1.02 for Istra 1961. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 20

~~Both scored~~11 of 20

~~Last meetings~~NKO 0–1 IST · IST 0–1 NKO · NKO 1–5 IST · IST 2–1 NKO

Form · last six in HNL

NK OSIJEK

WLWLWD1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–0

ISTRA 1961

WLDDWL3–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	+8	16
2	HNK Hajduk Split	8	+8	16
3	NK Osijek	8	+6	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	+6	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	+6	14
6	Istra 1961	8	+1	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	−5	7
8	NK Slaven Belupo	8	−9	7
9	Rudes	9	−13	7
10	HNK Gorica	9	−8	5