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Model 1.2

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NK Osijek v HNK Gorica

NK Osijek
1–1Full time
HNK Gorica

HNL · SAT 17 OCT · Opus Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica NK OSIJEK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said NK Osijek win48%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.795
The market’s Brier score0.932

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 39 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said NK Osijek win at 48%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: NK Osijek was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
  3. 2′KICK-OFF NK Osijek v HNK Gorica
  4. 23′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–56
  5. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' NK Osijek 0–1 HNK Gorica
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' HNK Gorica win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was NK Osijek win 18%)
  8. 24′HNK Gorica ahead on 23′ through Jakov Pranjić. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–26–56
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  10. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 29' NK Osijek · On: Ivan Dolček · Off: Simun Mikolcic
  11. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Izak Ježić · NK Osijek
  12. 36′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  13. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Armando León · NK Osijek
  14. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' frigan juraj · HNK Gorica
  15. 45′SECOND HALF NK Osijek 0–1 HNK Gorica
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Osijek · On: Admir ljatifi · Off: Álejandro Cantero
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Osijek · On: Marcel Heister · Off: Izak Ježić
  18. 47′HALF-TIME NK Osijek 0–1 HNK Gorica
  19. 52′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  20. 53′NK Osijek have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  22. 56′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–7–92
  23. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Gorica
  24. 58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' HNK Gorica
  25. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Goncalo Costa · HNK Gorica
  26. 64′NK Osijek have had 14 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 5–22–73
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' NK Osijek · On: Ivan Barić · Off: Luka Tunjic
  28. 67′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–60–15
  29. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica
  30. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
  31. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was HNK Gorica win 15%)
  32. 68′NK Osijek have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 25–61–15
  33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' HNK Gorica · On: Ognjen Bakic · Off: frigan juraj
  34. 69′We said NK Osijek at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  35. 70′Armando León scores for NK Osijek on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–63–14
  36. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' HNK Gorica · On: Stefan Perić · Off: Jakov Pranjić
  37. 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–19–78
  38. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' NK Osijek 1–2 HNK Gorica
  39. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
  40. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' HNK Gorica win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 19%)
  41. 72′71′: Ognjen Bakic on the scoresheet for HNK Gorica, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  42. 74′21 shots for NK Osijek, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–69–12
  43. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' HNK Gorica
  44. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 20% now
  45. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was HNK Gorica win 12%)
  46. 77′A red card for HNK Gorica on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 17–73–10
  47. 77′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Mario Carević · HNK Gorica
  48. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NK Osijek · On: Luka Posavec · Off: Jay Kruiver
  49. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' HNK Gorica · On: ivan cvijanovic · Off: Bruno Bogojević
  50. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' NK Osijek win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  51. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' HNK Gorica · On: Kevin Custovic · Off: Domagoj Pavičić
  52. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' NK Osijek 1–2 HNK Gorica
  53. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' HNK Gorica win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
  54. 91′90′: ivan cvijanovic on the scoresheet for HNK Gorica, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  55. 91′25 shots for NK Osijek, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  56. 92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' HNK Gorica
  57. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was HNK Gorica win 2%)
  58. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Filip Braut · HNK Gorica
  59. 96′Full time, 1–1. We called NK Osijek at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  60. FTFULL TIME NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica
  61. FTNK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica · NK Osijek win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Osijek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Osijek 48%, draw 29%, HNK Gorica 23%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on NK Osijek v HNK GoricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NK Osijek win48%
Draw29%
HNK Gorica win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueOpus Arena

RefereeAnte Culina

Line-ups

NK Osijek

4-2-3-1

HNK Gorica

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Osijek

HNK Gorica

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · HNL

Last match: 9 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5NK Osijek9+416
10HNK Gorica9−85

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NK Osijek

4-2-3-1

31 M. Malenica

22 J. Kruiver

98 Izak Ježić

49 Ivano Kolarik

47 D. Kalem

8 Š. Mikolčić

23 L. Vrbancic

39 D. Bukvić

11 Luka Tunjic

21 Cantero

79 A. León

Coach · Fede Bessone

Substitutes

67 · B. Bakti

12 · Jan Adžić

99 · Balelo

9 · I. Barić

1 · N. Curcija

7 · I. Dolček

18 · Niko Farkaš

2 · M. Heister

26 · L. Jelenić

30 · A. Ljatifi

16 · O. Petrusenko

24 · L. Posavec

HNK Gorica

4-2-3-1

1 R. Josipović

2 F. Braut

32 J. Filipović

15 D. Stevanović

5 Gonçalo Costa

6 T. Lacoux

66 Juraj Frigan

25 B. Bogojević

24 D. Pavičić

8 J. Pranjić

50 A. Erceg

Coach · M. Carević

Substitutes

4 · K. Čustović

20 · L. Vrzić

30 · D. Žarkov

45 · S. Perić

21 · H. Moustapha

9 · P. Mijić

71 · D. Matijaš

18 · B. Kardum

34 · I. Cvijanović

7 · O. Bakić

Our number · nk osijek winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market56%
Us48%
Market56%

We make NK Osijek a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · NK Osijek v HNK Gorica1.44 – 0.92
Form · last six in HNL this season · since 22 AugW2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 16 v 55 v 10
The market · NK Osijek win56% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 15:53
Our probability · NK Osijek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
NK Osijek win48%56%−8
Draw29%24%+5
HNK Gorica win23%20%+3
Over 2.5 goals42%53%−11
Both teams to score47%54%−7
Over 1.5 goals69%76%−7
Over 3.5 goals21%32%−11
NK Osijek or draw77%80%−3
NK Osijek clean sheet40%––
HNK Gorica clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 10.6 7.7 4.0 1 12.6 13.3 5.7 2 9.8 8.9 4.1 3 4.7 4.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+NK Osijek down, HNK Gorica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsHNK 0–2 NKO · HNK 2–0 NKO · NKO 0–0 HNK · NKO 1–1 HNK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 22 Aug

NK OSIJEK

LWLWDL0–4 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

HNK GORICA

LDLDWL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1HNK Hajduk Split9+919
2NK Varazdin9+718
3HNK Rijeka9+417
4Dinamo Zagreb8+716
5NK Osijek9+416
6Istra 19619+312
7NK Slaven Belupo9−610
8NK Lokomotiva Zagreb9−67
9Rudes10−147
10HNK Gorica9−85

The competition's standings before kick-off.