NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varazdin prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win~~37%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varazdin
2′Little has changed for our model: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
6′Little has changed for our model: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Marko Vešović · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
29′8.0 shots for NK Varazdin, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 34–35–31
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win 33%)
37′8.0 shots for NK Varazdin, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–38–30
39′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' NK Varazdin win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was NK Varazdin win 30%)
40′luka mamic scores for NK Varazdin on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–68
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' NK Varazdin win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was NK Varazdin win 30%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin · luka mamic
41′luka mamic scores for NK Varazdin on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' NK Varazdin win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win 9%)
45′SECOND HALF NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Feta Fetai · Off: matija subotic
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Dušan Vuković · Off: Marko Vešović
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Ivan katic · Off: jakov vasilj
46′HALF-TIME NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' NK Varazdin · On: Sven Lesjak · Off: Ivan Posavec
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Kristijan Čabrajić · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' NK Varazdin · On: Tomislav Duvnjak · Off: Petar Bočkaj
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Kayke Rodrigo Souza de Abreu · Off: Kristijan Čabrajić
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' dominik thaqi · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Fran Karačić · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' NK Varazdin · On: David Puclin · Off: Mario Marina
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Noel Durkovic · Off: dominik thaqi
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Ivan Canjuga · NK Varazdin
90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Dušan Vuković · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FTFULL TIME NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin
FTNK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win37%

Draw30%

NK Varazdin win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadion Maksimir

RefereePatrik Pavlesic

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

NK Varazdin

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Varazdin

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	NK Varazdin	8	+6	15
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	−5	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

12 J. Posavec

13 F. Karacic

4 A. Triantafyllou

2 J. Gurlica

20 K. Cabrajic

10 M. Subotic

9 L. Belcar

23 M. Vesovic

29 J. Vasilj

15 D. Thaqi

24 M. Maric

Coach · Nikica Jelavic

Substitutes

32 · L. Savatovic

25 · P. Smiljanic

14 · M. Lorber

6 · F. Fetai

11 · L. Kulusic

26 · D. Morina

8 · I. Katic

7 · D. Vukovic

16 · Kayke

28 · N. Djurkovic

NK Varazdin

4-2-3-1

33 J. Silic

23 F. Maglica

13 M. Mladenovski

16 N. Tepsic

3 E. Durakovic

28 I. Canjuga

24 M. Marina

12 P. Bockaj

22 L. Mamic

21 I. Posavec

10 A. Latkovic

Coach · Nikola Safaric

Substitutes

31 · R. Grubisic

5 · S. Lesjak

44 · M. Barac

20 · G. Sikosek

30 · L. Posinkovic

6 · D. Puclin

8 · T. Duvnjak

19 · L. Lukanic

9 · S. Juric

11 · E. Uchegbu

17 · V. Akrap

Our number · nk lokomotiva zagreb winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nk lokomotiva zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	30%	27%	+3
NK Varazdin win	33%	44%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−9
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw	67%	56%	+11
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet	31%	–	–
NK Varazdin clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.3 9.4 6.1 2.4 1 10.1 14.0 7.5 2.9 2 6.9 8.0 4.6 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Lokomotiva Zagreb down, NK Varazdin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 942 HNL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 1.94 goals a meeting; 4 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). NK Varazdin away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 1.17 for NK Varazdin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.94

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 16

~~Both scored~~8 of 16

~~Last meetings~~NKV 1–1 NKL · NKL 1–1 NKV · NKV 4–2 NKL · NKL 1–0 NKV

Form · last six in HNL

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB

LLLLDL0–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

NK VARAZDIN

WLWDDD2–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	9	+9	19
2	Dinamo Zagreb	8	+7	16
3	NK Osijek	9	+4	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	+6	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	+6	14
6	Istra 1961	9	+3	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	−5	7
8	NK Slaven Belupo	8	−9	7
9	Rudes	9	−13	7
10	HNK Gorica	9	−8	5