NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebDrawNK Osijek

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%, draw 28%, NK Osijek 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK OsijekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win41%

Draw28%

NK Osijek win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Maksimir

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Osijek

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · HNL

Last match: 17 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nk lokomotiva zagreb winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek~~1.42 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~8 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
NK Osijek win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw	70%	–	–
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet	31%	–	–
NK Osijek clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.6 7.8 5.2 2.1 1 9.5 13.4 7.3 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.1 2.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Lokomotiva Zagreb down, NK Osijek across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). NK Osijek away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 1.18 for NK Osijek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKO 1–0 NKL · NKO 0–0 NKL · NKL 3–1 NKO · NKO 1–1 NKL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 30 Aug

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB

LDLLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

NK OSIJEK

WLWDLD3–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7