NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961 prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961 NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.491

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.537

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
2′KICK-OFF NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961
11′A goal for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on 11′. 0–0 · 41–29–29
12′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Istra 1961 · Fran Karačić
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′11′: Fran Karačić on the scoresheet for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Istra 1961
46′SECOND HALF NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Istra 1961
47′NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ahead on 46′ through Lovre kulusic. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
47′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961 · Lovre kulusic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
51′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Niko Šepić · Istra 1961
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Istra 1961 · On: Dominik Celija · Off: Niko Šepić
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Istra 1961 · On: hamza jaganjac · Off: Dukan Ahmeti
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Istra 1961 · On: Silvio Gorican · Off: Nik Skafar Zuzic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Istra 1961 · On: Matija Kablar · Off: Demirel hodzic
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: dominik thaqi · Off: Leon Belcar
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Mirko Marić · Off: Dušan Vuković
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Matej Mitrović · Off: Ivan katic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Marijan Čabraja · Off: jakov gurlica
82′We said NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Istra 1961 · On: vinko rozic · Off: Isaac Aguiar Tomich
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Erbol Atabaev · Off: Feta Fetai
FTFULL TIME NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961
FTNK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 43%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win43%

Draw28%

Istra 1961 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Kranjčevićeva

RefereeAntonio Melnjak

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

Istra 1961

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Istra 1961

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · HNL

Last match: 10 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Istra 1961	9	+3	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	9	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

12 J. Posavec

13 F. Karačić

2 J. Gurlica

4 T. Triantafyllou

20 K. Čabrajić

8 I. Katić

6 F. Fetai

7 D. Vuković

14 M. Lorber

9 L. Belcar

11 Lovre Kulušić

Coach · N. Jelavić

Substitutes

3 · M. Mitrović

24 · M. Marić

26 · M. Dardan

32 · L. Savatović

25 · P. Smiljanic

16 · Kayke

10 · M. Subotić

15 · Dominik Thaqi

29 · J. Vasilj

5 · M. Čabraja

28 · N. Đurković

18 · E. Atabaev

Istra 1961

4-2-3-1

1 F. Kolić

44 R. Hrvatin

3 M. Nasraoui

4 R. Kumar

13 Niko Šepić

5 D. Hodzic

25 G. Albarracín

22 E. Frederiksen

20 D. Ahmeti

30 N. Skafar Zuzic

9 Isaac

Coach · Javier Cabello

Substitutes

27 · D. Celija

11 · S. Goričan

94 · H. Jaganjac

50 · Roko Jenjić

34 · M. Kablar

66 · M. Momoh

40 · J. Paus-Kunšt

7 · V. Rozić

24 · Ivano Svraka

23 · S. Ukich

39 · T. Brajkovic

Our number · nk lokomotiva zagreb winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961~~1.46 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~8 v 6

~~The market · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Istra 1961 win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	53%	62%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw	71%	66%	+5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet	31%	–	–
Istra 1961 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.4 7.5 5.0 1 9.6 13.2 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.2 2.0 3 3.8 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Lokomotiva Zagreb down, Istra 1961 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 945 HNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Istra 1961 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 1.17 for Istra 1961. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IST 2–3 NKL · NKL 2–0 IST · IST 1–1 NKL · NKL 1–2 IST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 21 Aug

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB

LLLDLL1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

ISTRA 1961

LDDWLW2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	9	+9	19
2	NK Varazdin	9	+7	18
3	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
4	Dinamo Zagreb	8	+7	16
5	NK Osijek	9	+4	16
6	Istra 1961	9	+3	12
7	NK Slaven Belupo	9	−6	10
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	9	−6	7
9	Rudes	10	−14	7
10	HNK Gorica	9	−8	5