Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Istra 1961DrawHNK Hajduk Split

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HNK Hajduk Split 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Istra 1961 26%, draw 28%, HNK Hajduk Split 46%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk SplitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

Istra 1961 win26%

Draw28%

HNK Hajduk Split win46%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Aldo Drosina

RefereePatrik Kolaric

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istra 1961

HNK Hajduk Split

9Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · HNL

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hnk hajduk split winFirst published 24 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make HNK Hajduk Split a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split~~1.04 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 22~~7 v 1

~~The market · HNK Hajduk Split win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Istra 1961 win	26%	23%	+3
Draw	28%	25%	+3
HNK Hajduk Split win	46%	53%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	57%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	37%	−13
Istra 1961 or draw	54%	47%	+7
Istra 1961 clean sheet	24%	–	–
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.4 10.9 8.7 4.3 1 7.5 13.4 8.9 4.4 2 4.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Istra 1961 down, HNK Hajduk Split across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Istra 1961 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). HNK Hajduk Split away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Istra 1961, 1.46 for HNK Hajduk Split. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HNK 2–2 IST · IST 1–3 HNK · HNK 1–2 IST · IST 0–3 HNK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

ISTRA 1961

DDWLWL2–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT

WWWLWW2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7